Well, I managed to survive last year's Top 10 list without any baseball bats cleaving the back of my skull in some darkened runway, so here we go again.
Last year I posted the first FutureAngels.com Top 10 Prospects list. It wasn't based on a poll or any obsessive sabremetric analysis. Just my thoughts mixed with what I'd heard and observed over the year by minor league managers, coaches, rovers, players, and just about anyone else whose opinion I respect.
Many baseball publications and Web sites post their own Top 10 lists. Some know what they're talking about more than others. A "Top 10" list is really no more than someone's opinion. And the opinion that makes that list can change from day to day.
Mine differs in that it comes right after the season ends. Their lists are typically published in the spring, a preview of the season to come. My list is more a wrap-up of the season just completed.
Don't take it personally if you're not on the list. At any one time, the Angels typically have around 200 minor leaguers under contract. That means 190 players don't get mentioned.
This year's list was more difficult to do. After three years of drafts and foreign free-agent signings under the Stoneman/Rowland administration, the Angels are starting to develop some serious depth to the farm system. Players who would have made the list last year will miss the cut this time, not because they don't deserve it but we just have more talent.
Let's start by restating my definition of "Top 10". The Top 10 What? The Top 10 talent? The first ten to make it to the big leagues? The ten players the Angels care about the most?
For me, it's a combination of all those factors. Baseball America tends to look at a player's "ceiling", i.e. how much talent potential he has. I look at that but also take into consideration the parent club's needs. For example, Chone Figgins made the Angels' roster in September as a pinch-running specialist and played a vital role during their playoff run. I'd tend to give that more weight than would Baseball America, because I'm considering the likelihood of his being in the big leagues next year. BA gives more weight to the player's likelihood to star in the big leagues, somewhere, sometime. The Angels also are badly lacking quality left-handed pitching talent at upper levels of their system, so all other factors being equal a leftie like Joe Saunders or Jake Woods or Joe Torres is more critical to the organization right now than righties with equivalent talent. Guys like Rich Fischer and Steven Shell richly deserve Top 10 consideration, but they're right-handed.
Certain players aren't eligible. I follow Baseball America's rule of excluding from the Top 10 list players who are no longer eligible for the Rookie of the Year award — more than 130 major league at-bats or 50 innings pitched during the regular season. That means guys like Matt Wise and Jeff DaVanon won't be on the list even though they might very well make the parent club roster in 2003.
So with all those qualifiers, let's once again tick off 190 ballplayers and their families . . .
10. Brian Specht (Bats: Both Throws: Right 5'11" 175 lbs. DOB: 10/19/80)
David Eckstein became a fan favorite and a national media darling with his hyperdrive
hustle and "X-Factor" situational hitting, so some Angels fans may not want to
hear that Brian Specht is by far the superior defensive shortstop. Specht has
excellent defensive range, perhaps second only to newcomer Erick Aybar at Rookie-A Provo.
Coming into the 2002 season, I rated his arm as "plus-plus", with the
ability to throw a bullet from short-left to first base, but that was before he suffered a
minor labrum tear that required surgery after the season. We'll have to wait and see
whether he still has gunpowder in that cannon. Specht spent the entire 2002 season
at Double-A, but played only 95 games at shortstop while playing another 30 at DH to rest
his shoulder. He struggled at the plate with an AVG/OBP/SLG of .248/.321/.397, and
still struggles with left-handed pitching (.264 vs. RHP, .194 vs. LHP). Brian's
problems were compounded by the Angels' tinkering with his swing to give him more lift,
which resulted in 13 HR although only four of those were away from the friendly confines
of Ray Winder Field. Specht will report to spring training at age 22, still young
for Double-A, but needs to make a statement when he returns to Arkansas if he wants to
make a run at Eckstein in 2005. He needs to cut down on the K's (129 in 476 AB),
making more contact to fit into the Angels' situational hitting philosophy. He also
needs to reduce the fielding errors, which came at a rate of one every 2.7 defensive
games. I've always been a big believer in Specht's tools, his baseball smarts, and
his leadership on the field. Hopefully 2002 can be written off as a developmental
year and he puts it all together in 2003.
9. Johan Santana P (Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'2" 150 DOB:
11/28/83)
Long and lean, Johan Santana at age 16 was one of the first "high-risk,
high-reward" foreign amateurs signed by Scouting Director Donny Rowland. The
young Dominican continues to be a strikeout machine. After leading the 2001 Rookie-A
Arizona League in strikeouts with 69 in 58.2 IP, he stepped up to Rookie-A Provo for four
starts before spending the entire 2002 season at Low-A Cedar Rapids where he was third in
the Midwest League in K's with 146 in 147 IP. His control continues to improve, as
evidenced by a 3:1 K:BB ratio this year. Opponents batted .240 against him this
year. Santana's velocity projects to the mid-90s if not higher as his body
matures. The keys for him will be physical health, mental maturity, continuing to
improve his mechanics and refining his off-speed pitches. Santana weighs more than
the 150 lbs. listed in the Angels' Media Guide; the more he fills out, the more his body
can handle the increased pitch counts expected of him as he continues to develop. He
didn't miss a start this year and was second to Jake Woods in IP for the Kernels.
Mental maturity should also bring more consistency, as his 4.16 ERA reflects some truly
horrid streaks this year (5.76 ERA over May-June and 4.94 ERA in August).
8. Nathan Haynes OF (Bats: Left Throws: Left 5'9" 170 lbs. DOB: 9/7/79)
Another year, another injury for Nathan Haynes. Nathan is the Angels' answer to Joe
Btfsplk, the jinxed Li'l Abner character with the perpetual black cloud over his
head. He had a hernia when he was with the Oakland A's in 1999. He began
2000 with a right-wrist injury, busted up his shoulder and knee running into walls later
in the year, and generally posted mediocre numbers. In 2001, he had his other knee
scoped in late April. This year Haynes was batting .400 (6 for 15) in major league
spring training when he slipped rounding first base on a hit, fell and tore a ligament in
his left thumb. I estimate he's missed about 200 games of development time so far.
The upside is that he's still only 23 and there's no immediate need for him in
Anaheim, so he can make up that time in Triple-A next season. Haynes participated in
the Arizona Fall League this year but still needs to improve his on-base percentage to
exploit his speed. He has the arm and range to play a major league CF. He
could be the next Juan Pierre, although he's also compared to Kenny Lofton. When
he's ready, he could force a realignment of the Angels' outfield, with Darin Erstad going
to LF, Garret Anderson to RF and Tim Salmon to DH. But if Haynes doesn't show
progress in 2003, look for Quan Cosby to start pushing him as the top CF candidate in the
Angels' system.
7. Jake Woods P (Bats: Left Throws: Left 6'1" 195 DOB: 9/3/81)
The Angels have so many talented young arms in their system that Jake Woods tends to get
overlooked. Don't. The Angels are desperately in need of legit prospect
left-handers, which is why they chose collegian Joe Saunders this year with their first
pick although high school prodigy Scott Kazmir was still available. Woods and
teammate Joe Torres are right behind Saunders on the southpaw depth chart. Woods
moved ahead of Torres this year because he showed the stamina to pitch a complete season
(27 starts; his 153.1 IP led the Kernels) while Joe continued to exhibit some fragility
and diminished velocity. Opponents batted only .228 against Jake this year at Low-A
Cedar Rapids. His velocity can now touch the low 90s; Woods saw his K/9 IP drop
from 11.6 last year at Rookie-A Provo but 7.1 isn't exactly powder-puff time either.
As with all young pitchers in the Angels' system, he's learning to refine a changeup that
will complement his fastball and three-quarters curve. Look for Jake to report to
High-A Rancho Cucamonga in 2003, where he'll get to pitch against hometown Bakersfield.
6. Joe Saunders P (Bats: Left Throws: Left 6'2" 195 DOB: 6/16/81)
Although only three months older than Woods, Joe Saunders ranks higher on the depth chart
primarily due to poise and experience. He features an average big-league fastball
and a "plus" changeup, the favorite pitch of those now running the farm system.
A reliable curve and/or slider as a third pitch would complete the repertoire.
Although Saunders signed June 5, the day after the draft, it took him a while to
get into shape to the point where he could pitch competitively, making his first start
June 28 for Provo. Once he got to Cedar Rapids in early August, Saunders hit the
afterburners, posting a 1.88 ERA in five starts (28.2 IP) with 27 K, 9 BB and a .168 OBA.
The Angels, lacking left-handed pitching depth in the upper levels of the system,
are likely to accelerate his progress as quickly as possible; don't be surprised if he
reports to Double-A Arkansas in 2003 so all the young Cedar Rapids arms can go to Rancho
Cucamonga.
5. Bobby Jenks (Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'3" 225 DOB: 3/14/81)
The Angels' enfant terrible continues to perplex. After a season of dubious
results, a suspension at Double-A Arkansas for an alcohol violation and a demotion to
High-A Rancho Cucamonga, Bobby Jenks went to the prestigious Arizona Fall League and blew
away a crop of top Double-A and Triple-A prospects with a 1.08 ERA and 54 K in nine
starts. There's no doubt about his stuff — a fastball that can touch 100 MPH, and a
great drop curve. At the AFL he mixed in a sinker. The problem is consistency,
both physical and mental. Much has been written about Bobby's past, so no reason to
go over that again. And don't read too much into the AFL results, because these days
the AFL is more a glorified instructional league than a serious competition among the best
prospects in the game. Jenks pitched 123.1 IP this year before adding 41.2 IP at the
AFL, the most so far in his career, but second-hand reports had his velocity still in the
high 90s in early November. At 6'3" 225 lbs., he has the bulk to deliver the
200+ IP expected in a season from a front-line starting pitcher. The bottom line for
Jenks is simple — if he takes his profession seriously, he will be a big league starting
pitcher. If he adds an effective third pitch, he could dominate the majors for a
decade if not longer. I take it as a good sign that Jenks just signed with
superagent Scott Boras; say what you will about Boras, but he only represents the best and
expects a high degree of professionalism from his clients. Boras will help ensure
that Jenks keeps focused on his career.
4. Chris Bootcheck (Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'5" 200 DOB:
10/24/78)
Chris Bootcheck is perhaps the most intensely focused starting pitcher in the Angels minor
league system. Like Bobby Jenks, he is a Scott Boras client and conducts himself as
one. Bootcheck can be a perfectionist, which occasionally gets him into trouble.
He began the 2002 season at Double-A Arkansas and became notorious for "the
one bad inning." That inning, typically, was the first frame; he had an ERA of
10.42 in the 1st inning, but 3.71 ERA thereafter. His numbers overall at Arkansas in
19 starts (116.0 IP) were a 4.81 ERA, 90 K/35 BB, a .277 OBA, and only 11 HR. Chris
was promoted to Triple-A Salt Lake in mid-July and pitched much better despite the
hitter-happy league, finishing with a 3.88 ERA in nine starts (58.0 IP), 38 K/16 BB, a
.283 OBA, and only 5 HR. Bootcheck continues to refine his primary pitches, a
two-seam fastball and a cut fastball, as well as a changeup. His velocity
consistently tops out in the low 90s. As in 2001, fragility continues to be a
concern; Chris left the Arizona Fall League after only two games due to a sore
elbow. Bootcheck logged 174 IP this year, about 50 IP more than 2001, which may
explain the early AFL departure. Chris most likely returns to Triple-A to begin 2003
but, if one of the Angels' starting rotation should falter, look for him to compete with
Matt Wise and Mickey Callaway for an opening. Eventually he'll be an intelligent
middle-of-the-rotation major league starting pitcher.
3. Francisco Rodriguez (Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'0" 175 DOB:
1/7/82)
The improbable savior of the Angels' bullpen during their post-season run, many people
were surprised when I left Francisco Rodriguez off last year's Top 10 list. That was
because he continued to demonstrate inconsistency with his mechanics that led to too much
torque on his shoulder and elbow, and therefore to repeated stints on the disabled list.
There were also times when he stubbornly failed to work on refining his secondary
pitches, such as a changeup or curve. I foresaw a breakdown in the future for him as
a starter, and apparently so did the Angels. They decided in the spring of 2002 to
move him into the bullpen at Double-A Arkansas. The Travs' manager was directed to
use him for 30-45 pitches 2-3 games a week; how and when really didn't matter.
Although he initially hated the role, viewing it as a demotion, Rodriguez finally found it
to his liking and now prefers it. When Travs closer Charlie Thames finally retired
due to injury, Frankie stepped in and the rest is baseball history. As anyone who
watched the World Series knows, his role for the near future will be the setup guy for
Troy Percival. He features a high-90s fastball and "the slider from Hell"
he delivers from multiple arm slots. Moving to the bullpen allowed Rodriguez to junk
his secondary pitches (Barry Bonds homered off his changeup) for the time being, although
adding a reliable off-speed pitch will make him all the more devestating. This was
also the first season his arm didn't hurt. Many fans ask if Frankie should start;
for now, the answer is no. The Angels have plenty of starting pitcher prospects in
the system. Rodriguez is more valuable in his current role, which will make him the
heir apparent to Troy Percival. Frankie could be the next Mariano Rivera, but he has
to continue to mature both on and off the field. Watch to see how he handles success
next year.
2. Casey Kotchman 1B (Bats: Left Throws: Left 6'3" 210 lbs. DOB: 2/22/83)
Casey Kotchman will be the top-ranked Angels prospect on most lists next year. There
are two reasons why he's #2 on this list. The first reason is his continuing string
of freak injuries. Casey was spiked on the foot covering first base in May, losing a
toenail that hobbled him for weeks and diminished his stats. Later in the season, he
missed about seven weeks when he strained his left wrist sliding into home. Kotchman
hyperextended his right wrist at Provo in 2001, missing the balance of the season.
When healthy, Casey draws comparisons to Rafael Palmeiro or Todd Helton.
Defensively, he's already a potential Gold Glover. It's believed that one day in the
majors he might be capable of 40-50 HR. But he hit only 5 HR in 81 games this year,
most likely due to the injuries. His .390 OBP for a 19-year old documents
outstanding plate patience against inexperienced pitchers in a lower-level league.
The second reason Casey is #2 is that #1 prospect Jeff Mathis has an intangible leadership
quality that made him the heart and soul of their Cedar Rapids team this year. In
future years, Kotchman will no doubt post superior offense numbers should he remain
healthy but, having grown up inside the game with his father Tom the Angels' Short-A
manager and Florida scout, it tends to set Casey apart at times from his teammates.
Casey is somewhat more reserved and quite the serious student of the game. As the
two advance in the system together to the major leagues, their physical abilities and
personalities will complement each other quite nicely. Power hitters get their
offense numbers from their hands; having suffered major injuries to both wrists within a
year, Casey needs to demonstrate he's back at full strength and start posting the power
numbers expected of him to grab the #1 prospect slot next year.
1. Jeff Mathis C (Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'0" 180 lbs. DOB: 3/31/83)
The Angels selected Casey Kotchman with their first pick (#13 overall) in the 2001 draft.
That was a no-brainer. What surprised many analysts was their selecting Jeff
Mathis with a "sandwich" pick they received after the first round as
compensation for losing Mark Petkovsek as a free agent to the Texas Rangers.
Petkovsek is long gone from Texas, which makes the Angels' landing Mathis all the more
remarkable. Many "experts" at the time bashed the Angels for
"overdrafting" Mathis, dismissing him as an inexperienced high schooler known
mostly for playing on the same team as Cleveland's #1 pick that year, Alan Horne (who
didn't sign). Jeff has more than proved the critics wrong. Defensively, he is
extremely advanced for his age and level of experience, perhaps already the best defensive
catcher in the system. His arm is strong and accurate, his footwork good, his hands
soft, and his body agile behind the plate. He calls a good game, demonstrates a
willingness to learn, and is already emerging as a leader on the field — an invaluable
skill for a catcher. Mathis broke the Cedar Rapids record for doubles, hitting 41 in
128 games. He also added 10 HR, an unanticipated burst of power. His .346 OBP
is not stellar but acceptable for a catcher. Jeff's season came to an end on August
25 when he was hit in the left cheek by a pitch; although he broke small bones around the
eye socket, the eye itself seems to have been unaffected. The Angels will face some
difficult decisions come spring training. Not only will they be sorely tempted to
accelerate Jeff's progress by leapfrogging him to Double-A, but they also need to figure
out what to do with 2000 2nd round pick Jared Abruzzo. Both need to play full-time,
but Abruzzo isn't ready yet defensively for Double-A. Catchers need to spend more
time in the minors than any other defensive position because they need to learn how to
quarterback the game, but Mathis' field smarts and natural physical ability may override
that. Expect him to apprentice with Bengie Molina in Anaheim during the 2005 season
and, if he stays healthy, soon thereafter become a star.