The Untouchables.
With all due apologies to Robert Stack, the modern day version refers not to a group of legendary 1920s Chicago crime fighters but five top prospects in the Anaheim Angels farm system. They're untouchable because it would take an overwhelming offer for Anaheim Angels General Manager Bill Stoneman to consider trading them.
The five are pitchers Bobby Jenks and Ervin Santana, first baseman Casey Kotchman, third baseman Dallas McPherson, and catcher Jeff Mathis. Any of these five could be ranked the #1 prospect in most organizations.
As the glow fades from a world championship year in 2002, the Angels turn their eyes away from past glory to the horizon where these five young men stand. A new era is about to dawn. The Untouchables could arrive as early as late 2004, and could be the core of a team that dominates the AL West for the rest of the decade.
But let's not get ahead of ourselves.
Until realized, potential is just that. Potential.
Nothing is guaranteed. Injuries can slow a player's progress. The cruelties of the real world can intervene. Or he simply fails to live up to his promise.
But production by expensive free agents isn't guaranteed either. It's a tough call. Would you rather have a flop paid the major league minimum at $300,000 a year or a bloated $10-million-plus?
In any case, that's an argument for another time. Today it's our third annual FutureAngels.com Top 10 Prospects list.
Four years ago, the Angels' farm system was rated the worst in baseball by Baseball America. But now they're rated the best by SportsTicker and USA Today. The last ranking by Baseball America placed the Angels fifth out of thirty teams. The Untouchables are cited by many analysts as a main reason why the Angels' player development system is rated so highly. But there are many others in the system who are also worthy of note.
So let's get to it.
We'll begin by revisiting how the annual FutureAngels.com Top 10 Prospects list works. It's not based on a poll or any obsessive sabremetric analysis. Just my thoughts mixed with what I observed and heard over the last year talking with minor league managers, coaches, rovers, players, and just about anyone else whose opinion I respect.
Many baseball publications and Web sites post their own Top 10 lists. Some know what they're talking about more than others. A "Top 10" list is really no more than someone's opinion. And the opinion resulting in that list can change from day to day.
Mine differs in that it comes right after the season ends. Most other lists are typically published in the spring, a preview of the season to come. My list is more a wrap-up of the season just completed.
If you're a player or a loved one, don't take it personally if you're not on the list. In a typical season, the Angels will have around 200 minor leaguers under contract. That means 190 players don't get mentioned.
This is the third year I've done a list, and each year it's become increasingly difficult. With all the talent in the pipeline, how can you narrow the list to ten without slighting a player worthy of inclusion? The Angels now have several prospects who in other organizations would be a Top 10 player. So that's why I make no pretension that this is the result of intensive objective analysis. It's just an opinion.
Let's also restate my definition of "Top 10". The Top 10 What? The Top 10 talent? The first ten to make it to the big leagues? The ten players the Angels care about the most?
For me, it's a combination of all those factors. Baseball America tends to look at a player's "ceiling", i.e. how much talent potential he has. I look at that but also take into consideration the parent club's needs. For example, the Angels have several shortstop prospects. If they go out and sign a free agent over the winter such as Miguel Tejada or Kaz Matsui, I'd downgrade their shortstop prospects because they're less likely now to emerge within this organization as a major league regular player. I give that more weight than would Baseball America, because I'm considering the likelihood of his being in the big leagues with the Angels in the near future. BA gives more weight to the player's likelihood to star in the big leagues, somewhere, sometime. I also tend to give more weight to players higher in the farm system, because they're closer to snatching that "brass ring". You can project a Rookie-A player as the next Barry Bonds, but there are a lot more "if's" in his way than a less capable player who's moved quickly through the system and is in Triple-A with a decent chance of making the parent club roster next year.
Certain players aren't eligible. I follow Baseball America's rule of excluding from the Top 10 list players who are no longer eligible for the Rookie of the Year award — more than 130 major league at-bats or 50 innings pitched during the regular season. That means some players won't be on the list even though they might very well make the parent club roster in 2004.
So with all those qualifiers, let's once again tick off 190 ballplayers and their families . . .
10. Steve Andrade RHP
(Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'1" 220 DOB: 2/6/78)
Rancho Cucamonga (High-A): 0-0 0.00 ERA, .000 OBA, 7:3 K:BB (3.0 IP)
Arkansas (Double-A): 5-1 2.65 ERA, .147 OBA, 74:19 K:BB (51.0 IP)
Setup relievers don't usually make top prospect lists, especially those who have reached
Double-A at age 25. But after posting incredible numbers the last two seasons, Steve
Andrade deserves the recognition. At Low-A Cedar Rapids in 2002, Andrade posted a
1.16 ERA in 46 relief appearances with 11 saves and a .162 OBA. In 54.1 IP, he
averaged over 15 strikeouts per nine innings, and a K:BB ratio of nearly 6:1. As a
23-year old in Low-A, that could be dismissed as a pitcher old for his league. But
in 2003 he made the leap to Double-A Arkansas and showed it wasn't a fluke. Andrade
came out of college late due to red-shirting his freshman year, after playing for small
colleges like Indiana Tech and Cal State Stanislaus, which is probably one major reason
why he was overlooked. His repertoire includes a low-90s fastball and a developing
changeup, but his primary weapon is the curve he delivers from various arm angles.
He's not afraid to challenge hitters for the inside of the plate. A recurring left
knee injury problem held him back in spring training and troubled him throughout 2003,
which will bear watching. Bill Stoneman is quite adept at churning Anaheim's setup
relievers, saving money by promoting capable arms like Ben Weber, Brendan Donnelly,
Francisco Rodriguez and Scot Shields rather than paying fattened contracts to those
nearing free agency. Andrade may take that step in 2005, but first he'll have to
conquer the high-octane ballparks of the Pacific Coast League in 2004, a significant test
for the deceptiveness of his curve ball. Refining his changeup would enhance his
repertoire and also make his fastball more effective on days when the curve isn't working.
9. Rich Fischer RHP (Bats:
Right Throws: Right 6'3" 180 DOB: 10/21/80)
Arkansas (Double-A): 5-11 4.61 ERA, .268 OBA, 123:43 K:BB (154.1 IP)
Rich Fischer was minding his own business playing shortstop for San Bernardino Valley
College in early 2000 when an Anaheim Angels scout asked his baseball coach to pitch him
in a game. Fischer later auditioned in a bullpen session and was eventually selected
by the Angels in the 21st round of the June 2000 draft. With no experience as a
pitcher, he was a project who developed under the initial tutelage of Mike Butcher, now
the Angels' roving pitching instructor, and later under Zeke Zimmerman, his coach at
High-A Rancho Cucamonga in 2002. Fischer blossomed in the California League, posting
a 3.50 ERA in 131.0 IP with a 138:29 K:BB ratio and .239 OBA. He finished 2002 with
seven starts at Double-A Arkansas, posting a 4.23 ERA but a .233 OBA. Fischer
returned to Arkansas for the entire 2003 season and regressed somewhat as his velocity
dropped, but the problem was finally identified as a mechanical flaw in his
delivery. Once corrected, in his last seven starts Fischer posted a 3.07 ERA with a
31:6 K:BB and .244 OBA. He then reported to the Arizona Fall League where had a 2.70
ERA in 6.2 IP before he was shut down with elbow tendinitis. Fischer pitched 175.2
IP in 2002 at age 21, which might have been pushing it, followed by 154.1 IP this year and
his AFL stint. He can be projected as a 200+ IP pitcher in the big leagues because
his mechanics are normally very clean for someone so inexperienced at pitching, but his
lanky frame needs to fill out a bit before he's asked to shoulder that much work.
Fischer features a lively fastball in the mid-90s, complemented by a changeup and
improving curve. His slider is inconsistent but when working can be effective.
His ability to throw strikes is a plus for someone with so little pitching
experience. Fischer should start 2004 in Triple-A but the Angels need to be careful
not to push his workload until his body matures a bit more.
8. Brandon Wood SS (Bats:
Right Throws: Right 6'3" 185 lbs. DOB: 3/2/85)
Mesa (Rookie-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .308/.349/.462 (86 TPA)
Provo (Rookie-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .278/.348/.475 (181 TPA)
With so many talented shortstop prospects in the Angels' farm system, some were surprised
that the Angels would select yet another one with their 2003 1st round draft pick.
But Brandon Wood quickly showed the offensive promise and defensive tools to project as a
future major leaguer. Evocative of a very young Cal Ripken, Jr., Wood is tall and
lean, and brings a power bat to the plate. He made the transition from aluminum to
wood without much trouble. Judging power in the high-altitude Pioneer League is
always a problem, but he did hit one of the longest shots in the history of Ogden's
Lindquist Field on a night he also homered down the left-field line. As Brandon's
body matures, he may grow out of shortstop as Ripken did for parts of his career; in fact,
Wood played ten games at 3B for Provo along with 35 games at SS. He'll never have
more than average speed on the basepaths. His defensive work for now is solid but
not spectacular, once again evocative of Ripken. Low-A Cedar Rapids is a likely
assignment to start 2004, which will be an interesting test as many Midwest League
ballparks are pitcher-friendly. Brian Specht and Erick Aybar also project as major
league shortstop prospects, but Wood for now gets a slight edge here for the power
potential. Depending on how his body fills out over the next few years, he could
wind up in the big leagues at another position.
7. Chris Bootcheck RHP
(Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'5" 200 DOB: 10/24/78)
Salt Lake (Triple-A): 8-9 4.25 ERA, .290 OBA, 82:43 K:BB (171.1 IP)
Anaheim (American League): 0-1 9.58 ERA, .340 OBA, 7:6 K:BB (10.1 IP)
One of two Angels' 1st round draft picks in 2000, there may be some sense of
disappointment with Chris Bootcheck's 2003 numbers. But if one looks more closely,
he did much better than indicated. Bootcheck struggled with a forearm injury that
affected his control and repertoire for much of the first half of the season.
Another mitigating factor was that he was in the Pacific Coast League which isn't
pitcher-friendly, nor is home ballpark Franklin Covey Field. But in his last 11
starts, he posted a 2.66 ERA in 74.1 IP with a 45:18 (2.5:1) K:BB ratio and a .278
OBA. Compare this to the nine starts he made in late 2002 for Salt Lake after a
mid-season promotion (3.88 ERA in 58.0 IP, 38:16 K:BB, .283 OBA), and it demonstrates some
progress. Bootcheck was not called up in September so he went home only to receive
an emergency promotion when Ramon Ortiz left the Angels due to the death of his father, so
Chris had to crank it up again after being shut down, which can rationalize his poor
Anaheim numbers. Bootcheck's repertoire includes a fastball in the low 90s, slider,
changeup and a so-so curve. When he's on, Bootcheck capably works the four corners
of the strike zone to get ahead in the count, but as in 2002 he still has problems
escaping the first inning unscatched (5.88 ERA in 2003). Always a disciplined
professional, Bootcheck needs to stay healthy in 2004, continue to refine the changeup as
a complement to his fastball, and improve the curve to have another pitch to show big
league hitters. Salt Lake isn't the best place for a young pitcher to measure his
progress but, should he return to Triple-A for 2004, a run similar to his last 11 starts
this year will put him back on track to the Angels' starting rotation.
6. Alberto Callaspo 2B
(Bats: Both Throws: Right 5'10" 160 lbs. DOB: 4/19/83)
Cedar Rapids (Low-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .327/.377/.428 (565 TPA)
If there was a sixth Untouchable, it would be Alberto Callaspo. He's
beginning to draw comparisons to Roberto Alomar, and with justification. In his
first three pro seasons, Callaspo has always walked more than he struck out, with a 28:42
K:BB ratio in 2003. More of a slap hitter right now, he hasn't drawn a lot of walks
so far but always manages to find a way to get on base. Alberto is a remarkably
consistent hitter; it's rare that he goes two games without finding a way to get on
base. Callaspo and his double-play partner Erick Aybar are perhaps the most
spectacular and entertaining middle-infield combo in the minor leagues, knowing
instinctively where the other is at all times. Although Callaspo has played
shortstop at times, his arm and range are better suited for 2B. He handled a
post-season promotion to High-A Rancho Cucamonga quite well, with an AVG/OBP/SLG of
.462/.533/.538 in 13 AB. It's hard to find a happier ballplayer; you can sometimes
spot Alberto singing and dancing in the dugout just before game time. Nicknamed
"the Siamese Twins" because they're inseparable on and off the field, Callaspo
and Aybar should start 2004 together at Rancho Cucamonga. A year older and more
polished, eventually Callaspo should take one step ahead of Aybar. It's not
inconceivable that Callaspo could arrive in Anaheim sometime in 2005, with a run at the
starting 2B job in spring training 2006.
5. Bobby Jenks RHP (Bats:
Right Throws: Right 6'3" 240 DOB: 3/14/81)
Mesa (Rookie-A): 0-0 0.00 ERA, .154 OBA, 5:0 K:BB (4.0 IP) (Rehab
Assignment)
Arkansas (Double-A): 7-2 2.17 ERA, .191 OBA, 103:51 K:BB (83.0 IP)
Bobby Jenks took two steps back but one big leap forward in his quest to put behind him
once and for all the "Nuke LaLoosh" moniker. He began to harness his
incredible potential in 2003, although he missed May and June with a stress
"reaction" in his right forearm that could have been far worse if it hadn't been
caught in time. A profile in ESPN: The Magazine exposed Jenks'
dysfunctional childhood for all the world to read. But when he came back from all
that, Bobby finally settled down and began to pitch dominantly. In six August
starts, Jenks posted a 0.82 ERA in 33.0 IP with a 42:16 K:BB ratio and .157 OBA.
Bobby's hard fastball consistently runs in the high 90s and occasionally will top 100 MPH;
when he's on, it's virtually unhittable as it rises in the zone. His 12-6 curve is
the perfect complement, and he showed confidence late in the season in a developing
changeup. Jenks accepted a post-season assignment to the Puerto Rican League, not
only to make up for lost time but it's probably his first exposure to other cultures
outside the U.S. which will be a good growing experience. Two things need to happen
for Bobby in 2004: (1) stay healthy for a full year, and (2) demonstrate he's a model
citizen. The key to both is conducting himself like a true professional ballplayer,
eating right and not succumbing to personal demons. If he can do that, it's no
exaggeration to suggest the Hall of Fame is within his grasp.
4. Dallas McPherson 3B
(Bats: Left Throws: Right 6'4" 210 lbs. DOB: 7/23/80)
Rancho Cucamonga (High-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .308/.404/.606 (339 TPA)
Arkansas (Double-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .314/.426/.569 (122 TPA)
Even if he achieves nothing else in his career, Dallas McPherson can spend his golden
years regaling his grandchildren with the tale of the time he homered off Hall-of-Famer
Randy Johnson when the Big Unit was on a rehab assignment in the California League.
Johnson surrendered a rare homer to a left-handed batter when McPherson took him deep in
his second at-bat. The Unit later grazed Dallas in the ribs with a pitch, and
McPherson retaliated by swiping second base on the next pitch. That anecdote aside,
Dallas had a pretty good year too, as he was among the minor league leaders in slugging
percentage. The 2003 season began a month late for Dallas as he suffered a lower
back injury in spring training, but by mid-season he was a monster at the plate. In
July, he hit 11 HR (including the one off Johnson) and homered in five straight games.
It led to a Double-A promotion where he didn't slow down, posting a 3 HR / 8 RBI
game on August 11. A post-season AFL assignment didn't fare as well, playing
sporadically and posting an AVG/OBP/SLG of .218/.256/.333. McPherson learned
personal discipline as a graduate of The Citadel military school, where he pitched as well
as play third base, which is why some have suggested he's less than stellar defensively,
but I don't agree. He's reduced his errors significantly, shows sure hands at the
Hot Corner, and good range. Whether he remains at 3B depends on the Angels signing
Troy Glaus, whose contract expires after 2004, to an extension; as soon as that ink dries,
I wouldn't be surprised to see Dallas moved to a corner outfield position. Until
then, he should start 2004 playing third base at Triple-A Salt Lake, where he should feast
on the PCL's hitter-friendly ballparks. Who knows, if he progresses fast enough
maybe he can get a rematch with Johnson before the Unit retires.
3. Ervin Santana RHP
(Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'2" 150 DOB: 1/10/83)
Rancho Cucamonga (High-A): 10-2 2.53 ERA, .212 OBA, 130:36 K:BB (124.2 IP)
Arkansas (Double-A): 1-1 3.94 ERA, .211 OBA, 23:12 K:BB (29.2 IP)
Ervin Santana was named to both the California League All-Star Team and the Futures Game,
although he didn't play in either due to pitching rotation. That didn't stop him
from being named the California League's Pitcher of the Year. Santana's velocity
already tops out in the high 90s, complemented by a nasty slider with superior location
and developing changeup. Even when he doesn't have his best stuff, he still
demonstrates the poise to work out of jams and keep his team in the game, and is aware of
the game as it unfolds around him. Ervin weighs more than the 150 lbs. listed in
media guides, but nonetheless his lean frame and young age raises concerns about
durability. After working 147.0 IP in 2002 at Low-A Cedar Rapids, he added 154.1 IP
in 2003 but missed a couple starts in August because of elbow tenderness. Despite
his upside, the Angels need to be cautious about accelerating his progress because the
last thing they need is for this top prospect to lose two years to reconstructive
surgery. A return to Double-A to start 2004 would be appropriate, but he should
quickly rise to Triple-A and the major leagues by season's end so long as the Angels keep
an eye on his pitch count and total innings. He aged ten months last winter when a
review of his birth certificate revealed his real name is Ervin, not Johan, but the age
difference isn't significant enough to tarnish his top prospect status.
2. Jeff Mathis C (Bats:
Right Throws: Right 6'0" 180 lbs. DOB: 3/31/83)
Rancho Cucamonga (High-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .323/.384/.500 (422 TPA)
Arkansas (Double-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .284/.364/.463 (111 TPA)
Jeff Mathis was the #1 prospect on this list last year and arguably could be this year
too. He emerged from the shadow of Joe Mauer to join the Twins catcher on the USA
team's Futures Game roster, and they are now acknowledged as the top two catching
prospects in the minor leagues. Both reported to the Arizona Fall League at season's
end, with Mauer on the Team USA roster. Although Mathis' AFL numbers were
disappointing (.180/.281/.220 in 50 AB), they were probably reflective of a 20-year old
facing some of the best talent in the upper minors after playing 121 games during the
regular season. Jeff split 2003 between Rancho Cucamonga and Arkansas, earning an
early August promotion to Double-A after being named the starting catcher on the
California League All-Star Team. He continues to manifest surprising power, evolving
into an all-around athletic catcher such as Jason Kendall. As with any 20-year old,
Jeff still needs to polish all aspects of his game. A reduction in strikeouts would
exploit his natural line-drive swing and gap-hitter potential. Mathis is an
extremely intense competitor, takes charge on the field and will one day be a natural
leader in a major league clubhouse. It's a baseball axiom that catchers need more
time in the minors than any other position to learn how to quarterback a game, but the
Angels may be tempted to accelerate his progress. Don't be surprised if he starts
2004 at Triple-A Salt Lake, followed by an apprenticeship with Bengie Molina in 2005 and
the Anaheim starting job in 2006.
1. Casey Kotchman 1B
(Bats: Left Throws: Left 6'3" 210 lbs. DOB: 2/22/83)
Mesa (Rookie-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .333/.379/.593 (Rehab Assignment)
Rancho Cucamonga (High-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .350/.441/.524 (245 TPA)
Another year filled with injuries kept Casey Kotchman from posting potentially mammoth
numbers for a 20-year old. He suffered a torn hamstring in early May that cost him 2
1/2 months of play at High-A Rancho Cucamonga. When he returned, Kotchman kept it in
first gear on the basepaths, obviously still favoring the injury. Nonetheless, in
206 at-bats Casey posted extraordinary numbers for a 20-year old in the California
League. Project his numbers to the roughly 450 at-bats typical of a minor-league
140-game season, and he would have hit 18 homers, exceptional for his age and level.
More impressive was his strikeout-to-walk ratio, 16:30 — yes, only 16 strikeouts to 30
walks. Such plate discipline in a young power hitter is virtually unknown. His
defensive work is Gold Glove caliber. After the season, Kotchman reported to the
Arizona Fall League where he was .261/.348/.370 in 46 AB before yet another hamstring pull
shut him down for the winter. You have to figure that some day the run of bad luck
will end, but impatience with these injuries can result in mistakes potentially harmful to
his development. Kotchman has nothing to prove by "playing hurt" with a
capricious hamstring injury; quite possibly he is the most developmentally advanced player
for his age and level in the minor leagues. Several other sluggers suffered
repetitive injuries early in their career, and eventually outgrew them. Health
willing, Kotchman could start 2004 in Triple-A and arrive in Anaheim before the year ends.
He has a legitimate shot at being the Angels' starting first baseman for the 2005
season. Keep the long view, namely that by the end of the decade Kotchman could be
one of the premier hitters in the major leagues. Don't damage him now by forcing him
to play hurt. When he's ready, Casey could top out at 40-50 HR a season in the prime
of his career. He's worth the wait.
ABBREVIATIONS:
AB — At-Bats
AFL — Arizona Fall League
AVG — Batting Average
BB — Walks
ERA — Earned Run Average
IP — Innings Pitched
K — Strikeouts
K:BB Ratio — Strikeouts to Walks
OBA — Opponents' Batting Average
OBP — On-Base Percentage
PCL — Pacific Coast League
SLG — Slugging Percentage
TPA — Total Plate Appearances