When a bleary-eyed Casey Kotchman dug into the batter's box at Angel Stadium the afternoon of May 9, 2004, watched by his equally bleary-eyed father, Provo Angels manager Tom Kotchman, it marked the formal commencement of a new era in the history of the Anaheim Angels.
Ever since former scouting director Donny Rowland's remarkable draft in June 2001 netted a boatload of the game's top prospects, Angels fans have waited in anticipation of the day when Kotchman, Jeff Mathis, Dallas McPherson, Steven Shell and Jake Woods would arrive in Anaheim.
Kotchman was promoted from Double-A Arkansas when first baseman Darin Erstad suffered a hamstring injury. Casey played in 28 games through mid-June before returning to Triple-A, and was recalled when the rosters expanded in September. Dallas McPherson was also promoted to Anaheim in September; although it wasn't part of the plan, Dallas was thrust into the pennant-race limelight when second baseman Adam Kennedy tore up his knee. McPherson started at third base, with Chone Figgins shifting over to 2B. McPherson started two of three post-season games for the Angels.
Jeff Mathis, one of the youngest catchers in the Texas League, was left behind in Arkansas after Kotchman and McPherson were promoted. Shell tore up the California League and was named the Angels' minor league pitcher of the year. Woods at age 22 split the season between Arkansas and Salt Lake, posting a 2.70 ERA in 14 starts for the Travelers before struggling in Triple-A.
The Class of 2001 overall continues to impress. McPherson was named the minor league player of the year by Topps and The Sporting News. Baseball America ranked Kotchman and McPherson the top two prospects in the Pacific Coast League. Shell was named to the California League All-Star Team. Mathis played in the Futures Game for the second straight year.
Very quietly, other players drafted in that year also progressed. 6th rounder Quan Cosby, a high school football and track star, continues to learn the game. 10th rounder Matt Brown hit 23 HR for Cedar Rapids. 19th rounder Nick Gorneault hit 21 HR for Arkansas and played in the Texas League All-Star Game. 21st rounder David Gates hit 20 HR for Rancho Cucamonga. 23rd rounder Mitch Arnold emerged as a closer prospect, posting a 2.48 ERA for Rookie-A Provo while striking out 41 in 32.2 innings. 32nd rounder Stephen Andrade began the year in the Salt Lake bullpen but injuries saw him back in Arkansas by mid-season, where he posted a 2.44 ERA and struck out 59 in 48 innings. And 45th rounder Greg Porter hit .318 at Rancho Cucamonga before a hand injury finished him on July 23.
Not to be outdone by his predecessor, the Angels' new scouting director Eddie Bane conducted a June 2004 draft that was "gutsy" to say the least. Anaheim lost its second and third round picks last winter in compensation for signing Vlad Guerrero and Kelvim Escobar. Rather than simply write off those slots, Bane decided to take the Angels' "high risk, high reward" draft philosophy to a new level.
With the 12th pick in the first round, Bane chose RHP Jered Weaver, widely acknowledged as the best college pitching prospect in the draft but deemed far too expensive to sign after selecting feared agent Scott Boras as his advisor. Weaver still hasn't signed — which is why he's not on this prospect list — although that seems to be largely due to the market waiting to determine the value of another Boras client, 15th pick Stephen Drew, who also hasn't signed. As of this writing, five first rounders still haven't signed, with Drew appearing to be the key. Some analysts believe it may be spring training before Weaver signs.
Bane rolled the dice on several more "name" amateurs. In the 4th round, Bane drafted Patrick White, an Alabama high school football star who was also considered a top outfield prospect. White chose to attend West Virginia University and play football, revoking the Angels' rights to him for this year. But several others did sign and, if they realize their potential, could be hailed as "steal" draft picks in years to come.
In the 14th round, Bane selected RHP Nick Adenhart, a 17-year old out of Williamsport MD who had been projected by Baseball America as the top high school pitching prospect in 2004 before he underwent "Tommy John" surgery. Although Adenhart probably won't start throwing again until the summer of 2005, Bane picked him anyway and signed him for $710,000, a fraction of what he would have cost when healthy.
In the 18th round, Bane chose RHP Mark Trumbo out of Villa Park High School in Orange CA, just down the road from Angel Stadium. Also a projected first-round high school pitching prospect, other teams passed on Trumbo because he seemed committed to the University of Southern California. The Angels remarkably talked him into signing for $1.4 million and — after an impressive batting practice salvo at Angel Stadium — promptly announced that Trumbo would be developed as a third baseman!
But wait, there's more!
In the 20th round, the Angels selected D.T. McDowell, a highly-touted Alabama high school outfielder who was widely believed to be enrolling at the University of Nebraska to play quarterback. But after a change in the Cornhuskers' football coaching staff, McDowell changed his mind and signed with the Angels. McDowell was in Mesa long enough to post his first professional homer and a .310/.379/.483 AVG/OBP/SLG, but left after 21 games to join the Troy State football program. Had McDowell remained with the Angels, he might have snuck into the #10 slot on this year's FutureAngels.com Top Prospects list. The Angels have made it clear to McDowell that he won't play for them again unless he foresakes football; the freshman quarterback made his first start for Troy State on October 23, so whether he returns to pro baseball with the Angels is uncertain.
In the 30th round, The Angels selected RHP Alan Horne. His name might sound familiar to baseball draft addicts. That's because he was the 27th pick in the first round of the 2001 draft by the Cleveland Indians. Horne, whose catcher at Marianna (FL) High School was Jeff Mathis, chose instead to attend Ole Miss where he suffered an elbow injury and underwent "Tommy John" surgery in April 2003. Horne transferred to Chipola Junior College, about 20 miles from Marianna and in the heart of Tom Kotchman's scouting turf. Taken by the Angels as a "draft-and-follow," Horne can still attend school and pitch his way back into shape while the Angels observe his progress. The Angels — with Kotchman no doubt watching every pitch — have until next June to sign Horne.
We'll know five years from now whether Bane's draft was genius or reckless. Today, it's time for our fourth annual FutureAngels.com Top 10 Prospects list.
Five years ago, the Angels' farm system was rated the worst in baseball by Baseball America. A year ago, they were rated the best by SportsTicker and USA Today, and third by Baseball America. As with any team's prospects list, the passage of time yields rewards, surprises and disappointments.
A year ago, many expected top pitching prospects Bobby Jenks and Ervin Santana to be in Anaheim by now. Injuries slowed them both. After a repeat of his "stress reaction" injury, Jenks had pins inserted in his elbow in the hope that the bone would hold together and heal. Jenks reportedly will be ready by spring training. Santana was set back by shoulder weakness in spring training; when he finally reported to Arkansas, Santana made only eight starts before he was shut down by elbow tendonitis.
Perhaps the most pleasant surprise was Mike Napoli, a second-string catcher who wound up hitting 29 homers while posting an AVG/OBP/SLG of .282/.393/.539 for Rancho Cucamonga. A California League All-Star, Napoli has people wondering if 2004 was a fluke year or if he's about to join the list of legitimate major league prospects.
Let's revisit how the annual FutureAngels.com Top 10 Prospects list works. It's not based on a poll or any obsessive sabermetric analysis. Just my thoughts mixed with what I observed and heard over the last year talking with minor league managers, coaches, rovers, players, and just about anyone else whose opinion I respect.
Many baseball publications and Web sites post their own Top 10 lists. Some know what they're talking about more than others. A "Top 10" list is really no more than someone's opinion. And the opinion resulting in that list can change from day to day.
Mine differs in that it comes right after the season ends. Most other lists are typically published in the spring, a preview of the season to come. My list is more a wrap-up of the season just completed.
If you're a player or a loved one, don't take it personally if you're not on the list. In a typical season, the Angels will have around 200 minor leaguers under contract. That means 190 players don't get mentioned.
This is the fourth year I've done a list, and each year it's become increasingly difficult. With all the talent in the pipeline, how can you narrow the list to ten without slighting a player worthy of inclusion? The Angels now have several prospects who in other organizations would be a Top 10 player. So that's why I make no pretension that this is the result of intensive objective analysis. It's just an opinion.
Let's also restate my definition of "Top 10". The Top 10 What? The Top 10 talent? The first ten to make it to the big leagues? The ten players the Angels care about the most?
For me, it's a combination of all those factors. Baseball America tends to look at a player's "ceiling", i.e. how much talent potential he has. I look at that but also take into consideration the parent club's needs. For example, the Angels have several shortstop prospects. If they go out and sign a free agent over the winter such as Nomar Garciaparra, I might downgrade their shortstop prospects a bit because they're less likely now to emerge within this organization as a major league regular player. I give that more weight than would Baseball America, because I'm considering the likelihood of his being in the big leagues with the Angels in the near future. BA gives more weight to the player's likelihood to star in the big leagues, somewhere, sometime. I also tend to give more weight to players higher in the farm system, because they're closer to snatching that "brass ring". You can project a Rookie-A player as the next Barry Bonds, but there are a lot more "if's" in his way than a less capable player who's moved quickly through the system and is in Triple-A with a decent chance of making the parent club roster next year.
Certain players aren't eligible. I follow Baseball America's rule of excluding from the Top 10 list players who are no longer eligible for the Rookie of the Year award — more than 130 major league at-bats or 50 innings pitched during the regular season. That means some players won't be on the list even though they might very well make the parent club roster in 2005.
So with all those qualifiers, let's once again tick off 190 ballplayers and their families . . .
10. Howard Kendrick 2B
(Bats: Right Throws: Right 5'10" 180 lbs. DOB: 7/12/83)
Cedar Rapids (Low-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .367/.398/.578 (337 TPA)
Last February, Baseball America Executive Editor Jim Callis called Howie
Kendrick a "huge sleeper" and turned out to be right. Even though Kendrick
missed two months with a severe groin pull and lacked enough at-bats to qualify for the
Midwest League batting title with his .367 average, he was still crowned the hit king
because of a loophole which says that if the batter had piled up enough "oh-fer"
at-bats to qualify and would still have the best average, he's the winner. The next
guy hit .322; that's how far ahead he was of his peers. Kendrick was discovered by
Florida scout and Provo manager Tom Kotchman, who talked the Angels into giving Kendrick a
big enough bonus to lure him away from college. Kendrick is not as flashy as Alberto
Callaspo, who probably has better speed, range and arm, and therefore doesn't project to
be as versatile as Callaspo, who was converted to shortstop this year. Nonetheless,
Kendrick played a solid second base in the Midwest League, where not all infields are
created equal. Like Callaspo, he's a contact hitter, which will fit nicely into the
Angels' philosophy of situational hitting and productive outs. For now, Kendrick
would seem to be exhibiting more power than Callaspo. Look for Kendrick to begin
2005 at High-A Rancho Cucamonga. Although Callaspo is still the top 2B prospect in
the system — assuming the Angels move him back to that position — Kendrick is a viable
alternative and could move quickly if he (a) continues to hit at higher levels, (b)
Callaspo remains at shortstop and (c) Adam Kennedy doesn't come back successfully from his
knee injury.
9. Joe Saunders LHP (Bats:
Left Throws: Left 6'2" 200 DOB: 6/16/81)
Rancho Cucamonga (High-A): 9-7 3.41 ERA, .261 OBA, 76:23 K:BB (105.2 IP)
Arkansas (Double-A): 4-3 5.77 ERA, .333 OBA, 25:14 K:BB (39.0 IP)
The Anaheim Angels' 1st round draft pick in June 2002, Joe Saunders' professional career
came to a screeching halt in spring training 2003 when it was discovered he'd suffered a
torn rotator cuff and partially torn labrum working into pitching condition for the season
to come. Rather than undergo surgery, Saunders opted for a year of rehabilitation.
The plan seems to have worked, as Saunders notched 144.2 IP in 2004 with largely
successful results. As might be expected, Saunders spent much of the 2004 season
restoring his mechanics. His velocity picked up from mid-80s in spring training to
low 90s by mid-season at Rancho Cucamonga. His Rancho numbers could have been
better; if you toss out an anomalous start at Lancaster (the Cal League's launching pad;
there's a reason why Space Shuttles decorate the scoreboard) on May 6 when he gave up 10
earned runs in 4.1 IP, his ERA improves to 2.66 and his OBA to .245. That success
didn't carry over to the Texas League, after he was promoted to Double-A in late July.
Look for Saunders to pick up where he left off, starting for Arkansas. His
repertoire includes a two-seam fastball, a changeup that was his "plus" pitch in
college, and a developing curveball. Saunders could evolve into a
middle-of-the-rotation big-league starter or at worst a situational lefty out of the
bullpen called in to deliver ground balls.
8. Alberto Callaspo SS-2B
(Bats: Both Throws: Right 5'10" 160 lbs. DOB: 4/19/83)
Arkansas (Low-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .284/.338/.376 (612 TPA)
Once upon a time, Alberto Callaspo and soul mate Erick Aybar dreamed of rising
through the farm system together, with Callaspo at second base and Aybar at shortstop.
But then came spring training 2004, and the Angels decided to break up the
"Siamese Twins." Perhaps concerned about David Eckstein's ability to play
major-league caliber shortstop in the near future after a nerve problem affected his right
leg, the Angels decided to skip Callaspo over High-A Rancho Cucamonga and sent him
directly to Double-A Arkansas where he could play shortstop every day. Was it the
right decision? The future will decide. In the short run, Callaspo may have
been better served with more experience at Rancho Cucamonga, where he played briefly in
post-season 2003. His AVG/OBP/SLG dropped from .327/.377/.428 at Cedar Rapids in
2003 to .284/.338/.376 at Arkansas in 2004. Callaspo continued his pattern of
walking more than he strikes out (25:47), always a good sign in a young hitting prospect.
Defensively Callaspo held his own at shortstop, but Aybar has the tools to be the
better player at that position in the future. The winter may determine whether the
Angels continue this experiment; for example, if they sign free agent Nomar Garciaparra to
play shortstop, they really don't need a quick solution at the position and Callaspo can
return to 2B where, quite possibly, he could be reunited with Aybar at Arkansas. The
severe knee injury suffered by 2B Adam Kennedy in September might also dictate Callaspo's
move back to the position. He's currently spending the winter playing shortstop for
Oriente in the Venezuelan League.
7. Brandon Wood SS (Bats:
Right Throws: Right 6'3" 185 lbs. DOB: 3/2/85)
Cedar Rapids (Low-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .251/.322/.404 (535 TPA)
Although Erick Aybar is the most "toolsy" middle-infield prospect in the infield
system, Brandon Wood might be more of a "sure thing" in years to come.
Although he's not flashy like Aybar and lacks speed, Wood has more of a power swing and
seems less prone to creating errors (both physical and mental) defensively and running the
base paths. The Angels' 2003 1st round draft pick is tall and lean, evocative of a
young Cal Ripken, Jr. Some have suggested that, as his body matures, growth might
force him from shortstop to another position, maybe even catcher. After batting .288
over the first three months, Wood slumped as he hit only .223 the rest of the way, not
unusual for a teenager playing his first full season of professional ball. Like many
young hitters, he needs to improve his strike zone knowledge to cut down on strikeouts and
improve his on-base percentage. Wood turns 20 in March and is likely to start 2005
in Rancho Cucamonga, although his age and late-season slump might dictate a return to
Cedar Rapids. Another factor might be the Angels' deciding to move him to another
position, although at this stage in his development it seems unlikely. Baseball
America named him the #5 prospect in the Midwest League at season's end, the best in
their view among several legitimate shortstop prospects in the circuit this year.
6. Ervin Santana RHP
(Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'2" 150 DOB: 1/10/83)
Arkansas (Double-A): 2-1 3.30 ERA, .244 OBA, 48:18 K:BB (43.2 IP)
2004 was largely a washout for Ervin Santana, who experienced shoulder soreness in major
league spring training and remained in extended minor league camp until mid-May when he
reported to Double-A Arkansas, logged eight starts and then shut down with elbow
tendonitis. An MRI showed no structural problems, but the Angels sat him until
instructional league as a precaution. As noted in last year's Top 10 list, fragility
is a concern with Santana, whose frame needs to fill out more to absorb some of the energy
delivered by his mechanics. Santana's delivery has progressed from the days when he
flew wide open on a pitch, but caution remains appropriate until he matures out of the
(literal) growing pains. When healthy, Santana's repertoire includes a fastball that
tops out in the high 90s, a nasty slider and a developing changeup. He should return
to Double-A to start 2005, only 22 years of age. If he can avoid injury as his body
matures into adulthood, expect Santana to dominate; although the Angels could promote him
to Triple-A by mid-season, it's more probable they'll remain conservative with his
development and keep him in Arkansas to gain experience. The Angels were
conservative with Steven Shell in 2005, keeping him in Rancho Cucamonga for over a year,
so they'll probably follow the same path with Santana unless the parent club needs to rush
either of them due to injuries in Anaheim.
5. Erick Aybar SS (Bats:
Both Throws: Right 5'11" 170 lbs. DOB: 1/14/84)
Rancho Cucamonga (High-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .330/.370/.485 (627 TPA)
Aybar is the quintessential "tools" infielder yet needs to control his
game if he's to star in the major leagues. Although his defense can be spectacular,
he can just as easily flub a routine pop fly. His aggressive style of play can
sometimes border on the reckless, and it's not unusual to see play stopped while the
trainer tends to yet another minor boo-boo. That said, Aybar was one of the most
exciting players in the California League this year, and was named to the circuit's
post-season All-Star team. Compare him to his fellow Dominican, Miguel Tejada, who
passed through the league at the same age and you find that Aybar posted superior
offensive numbers (.330/.370/.485) to Tejada (.279/.352/.459). Aybar could be a
five-tool star in the majors, but to achieve it he'll have to harness his game.
Plate discipline will be a concern at higher levels, as like many of his countrymen he
practices the adage "You don't walk off the island." Although he stole 51
bases, he was caught 36 times. Most likely he'll start 2005 at age 21 in Double-A,
but as he encounters more experienced pitchers his offensive production will decline
unless he (a) improves his on-base percentage, and (b) can advance once he gets on-base
without being thrown out. He may reunite with his soul mate Alberto Callaspo should
the Angels decide to shift Callaspo back to 2B for 2005.
4. Jeff Mathis C (Bats:
Right Throws: Right 6'0" 180 lbs. DOB: 3/31/83)
Arkansas (Double-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .227/.310/.394 (494 TPA)
After Minnesota Twins prospect Joe Mauer made the parent club out of spring training, Jeff
Mathis was generally considered to be the top catching prospect in the minors. A
June swoon sent him spiraling into the first prolonged hitting slump of his professional
career, sliding from a .321 average on May 23 to below .250 on July 23 and a rock-bottom
.227 by season's end. Some have suggested it might be related to the promotion of
fellow top prospects Casey Kotchman on May 9 and Dallas McPherson on June 19, but that's
really not a serious explanation. More likely it had to do with the basic fact that
he's a 21-year old catcher in Double-A, very young for the league and very young for
carrying the burden of quarterbacking a Double-A pitching staff. Although he showed
a slight improvement in plate patience over 2003 (improving his BB:TPA ratio from once
very 11.3 TPA to 10.1), he also struck out more often (from once every 5.9 TPA to
4.8). An intense competitor, it may be that his personality got the best of him in
2004. Mathis is likely to begin 2005 back in Arkansas, where the Angels need for him
to emphasize development over winning. His drive to excel will make him a star once
he's in a league more appropriate for his age. Mathis has drawn comparisons to
all-around athletic catchers like Jason Kendall and Craig Biggio, which have led some to
suggest the Angels might shift him from catcher although that seems very unlikely as he's
the prime candidate to succeed Bengie Molina one day.
3. Steven
Shell RHP (Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'5" 190 DOB: 3/10/83)
Rancho Cucamonga (High-A): 12-7 3.59 ERA, .242 OBA, 190:40 K:BB (165.1 IP)
Steven Shell finally delivered the full season of quality starts projected by the Angels
when he was chosen in the 2001 draft. If you want a pitcher's physique, Shell fits
the build with his tall lanky frame. He generates a low-to-mid 90s fastball with his
high leg kick, complemented by a plus spike curveball. As with pretty much every
pitching prospect in the Angels system, Shell is working on a changeup but this year
resurrected a split-finger pitch he used in Little League. Despite the fundamentally
sound mechanics of his delivery, Shell sometimes drops his arm slot which flattens out the
movement on his pitches. His long delivery will generate more MPH as he physically
matures, but on the flip side gives runners more of a jump. Most importantly, Shell
got through a full season for the first time without an elbow injury; in 2002 at Cedar
Rapids and 2003 at Rancho Cucamonga, he had to shut down early due to elbow
problems. He'll turn 22 next March, just before he begins his first season at
Double-A Arkansas. Assuming he can get through another season without injury, Shell
could move quickly and find himself in Triple-A before season's end, although the Angels
are likely to be cautious with his progress due to his past record of fragility.
2. Dallas McPherson 3B
(Bats: Left Throws: Right 6'4" 230 lbs. DOB: 7/23/80)
Arkansas (Double-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .321/.404/.660 (302 TPA)
Salt Lake (Triple-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .313/.370/.680 (284 TPA)
Anaheim (AL) AVG/OBP/SLG: .225/.279/.475 (43 TPA)
Dallas McPherson made his major league debut on September 10 as a pinch-runner of all
things, but went 3-for-3 with a double in his first big-league start on September 20 and
hit three homers in the last two weeks of the season. It was the
end of a memorable season which began at Double-A Arkansas, passed through the Texas
League All-Star Game, continued on to a promotion to Triple-A Salt Lake, winding up in an
incredible season that got him named Minor League Player of the Year by The Sporting
News and Topps. Between the two levels, he hit 40 HR and notched 126 RBI.
But McPherson continues to strike out at an alarming rate, including four K's in a
September 21 game facing veteran southpaw Jamie Moyer who exposed his weakness for
well-located off-speed pitches with movement. That's a problem given the Angels'
situational-hitting, "productive outs" philosophy which counts on their hitters
to make contact. Overall in the minors this year, McPherson
struck out 169 times in 521 at-bats, while drawing only 57 walks. McPherson's
defense is still a work in progress, but should improve with experience. The Angels
announced after the season that they wouldn't re-sign free agent Troy Glaus, so McPherson
will be handed the starting third base job in Anaheim come April 2005.
1. Casey Kotchman 1B
(Bats: Left Throws: Left 6'3" 210 lbs. DOB: 2/22/83)
Arkansas (Double-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .373/.444/.555 (126 TPA)
Salt Lake (Triple-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .372/.423/.558 (220 TPA)
Anaheim (AL) AVG/OBP/SLG: .224/.289/.276 (128 TPA)
Casey Kotchman made his major league debut on May 9 when Darin Erstad injured a
hamstring. Promoted from Double-A Arkansas and pressed into emergency service,
Kotchman didn't post spectacular numbers but did make a noteworthy debut by going 48
at-bats before striking out. This was consistent with the trend through his minor
league career, striking out only 89 times (and walking 109 times) in 1,010 TPA. Kotchman seemed to sacrifice power
for contact as he fought off major league pitching for the first time. The power
will come as he physically matures and gains more major league experience. Ever
since he was drafted, scouts have said he's Gold Glove caliber defensively, and he proved
that during his callup. The only knock on him is a lack of speed, but he's savvy
enough not to make baserunning mistakes and might swipe a base now and then just on
baseball smarts. The injury bug bit Kotchman yet again in 2004, although it was
relatively mild compared to earlier seasons; he missed most of July with a strained right
wrist, and upon his return promptly injured his right shoulder
diving for a ball, costing him another week. There's no evidence that he's
"fragile" or "injury prone," as none of these injuries are repetitive;
sooner or later, the streak of bad luck should end. Baseball America
ranked Kotchman the top prospect in the Pacific Coast League, where he'll probably begin
2005 unless the Angels decide to move Darin Erstad and install Kotchman at first
base. Given the incredible numbers he posted in 2004, there's little for Kotchman to
achieve in the minors in 2005 except terrifying a lot more Triple-A pitchers.
Historically Kotchman has had slow starts for the first couple weeks at each level, but
quickly adjusts; a month or so of full-time major-league play in 2005 should launch Casey into a long and stellar career.
ABBREVIATIONS:
AB — At-Bats
AFL — Arizona Fall League
AVG — Batting Average
BB — Walks
ERA — Earned Run Average
IP — Innings Pitched
K — Strikeouts
K:BB Ratio — Strikeouts to Walks
OBA — Opponents' Batting Average
OBP — On-Base Percentage
OPS — OBP + SLG
PCL — Pacific Coast League
SLG — Slugging Percentage
TPA — Total Plate Appearances