2007 FutureAngels.com Top 10 Prospects
November 23, 2007
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This may be the first FutureAngels.com Top 10 Prospects report that's obsolete within days of its publication.
The Angels have already executed two significant off-season transactions. Shortstop Orlando Cabrera was traded on November 19 to the Chicago White Sox for pitcher Jon Garland, and free-agent center fielder Torii Hunter was signed on November 21 to a five-year contract. Rumors abound that the Angels are a major contender to trade for Florida Marlins third baseman Miguel Cabrera, sending a boatload of prospects in return. Among the names mentioned are the top two players on this year's list, Brandon Wood and Nick Adenhart.
So this report reflects the state of Angels Nation as of its publication, November 23. Any trades or other transactions after this date may render this report worthless, so enjoy it while you can.
2007 was a major year for the Angels' minor leagues. When the parent club suffered the usual barrage of injuries, the minor leaguers stepped up to plug holes. Outfielders Reggie Willits and Nathan Haynes, and pitcher Dustin Moseley, were unexpected yet significant contributors. Top catching prospect Jeff Mathis finally made the transition to Anaheim with a mid-season callup; although the bat isn't quite there yet, he showed he can call a major-league game and his defensive skills are top-notch. Howie Kendrick suffered two hand injuries, but showed he can hit major-league pitching. And Brandon Wood made his major league debut in three token callups intended to groom him for full-time duty in 2008. Terry Evans, Erick Aybar, Matt Brown, Ryan Budde, Rich Thompson, and Jason Bulger were among the other names who contributed at various times during the year.
One name who was going to make the Top 10 list this year was Cedar Rapids Kernels' closer Warner Madrigal. But the Angels lost him to a paperwork foulup. Madrigal has a high-90s fastball, above-average slider and developing changeup. He would have been #9 on this list but he's gone. Now he's Texas Rangers property, and it's a mistake Angels management may regret in a few years.
As we do every year, I follow Baseball America's rule of excluding from the list players who are no longer eligible for the Rookie of the Year award — more than 130 major league at-bats or 50 innings pitched during the regular season. That's why Brandon Wood is still on the list but Jeff Mathis is not.
Just because someone shows up on this list, it doesn't mean he's a sure-fire future major league star. It's just a snapshot of the organization at one point in time.
Let's also restate my definition of “Top 10”. The Top 10 What? The Top 10 talent? The first ten to make it to the big leagues? The ten players the Angels care about the most?
For me, it's a combination of all those factors. Baseball America tends to look at a player's “ceiling”, i.e. how much talent potential he has. I look at that but also take into consideration the parent club's needs. For example, I might give slightly less weight to a starting pitcher prospect if the parent club is deep in starters. I give that more weight than would Baseball America, because I'm considering the likelihood of his being in the big leagues with the Angels in the near future. BA gives more weight to the player's likelihood to star in the big leagues, somewhere, sometime. I also tend to give more weight to players higher in the farm system, because they're closer to snatching that “brass ring”. You can project a Rookie-A player as the next Albert Pujols, but there are a lot more “if's” in his way than a less capable player who's moved quickly through the system and is in Triple-A with a decent chance of making the parent club roster next year.
If you're a player or a loved one, don't take it personally if you're not on the list. In a typical season, the Angels will have around 200 minor leaguers under contract. That means 190 players don't get mentioned.
So with all those qualifiers, let's tick off 190 ballplayers and their families . . .
 Chris Pettit |
10. Chris Pettit OF
Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'0" 193 lbs. DOB: 8/15/1984
Cedar Rapids (Low-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .346/.429/.579 (266 TPA)
Rancho Cucamonga (High-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .309/.395/.502 (306 TPA)
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Chris Pettit began the season as an unprojected organization player and ended it as the Angels' minor league player of the year. At age 22, he had an AVG/OBP/SLG of .336/.445/.566 in 68 games with Rookie-A Orem in 2006, but most 22-year olds who are considered legit prospects aren't in Rookie-A. Pettit began 2007 at the next step up, Low-A Cedar Rapids, and basically carried the Kernels' offense for the first half. Chris was named to the Midwest League All-Star Game and was promoted to Rancho Cucamonga thereafter.
Pettit's offensive approach is advanced for his levels. He looks ahead, taking a pitch in his first at-bat hoping that a pitcher might think he'll take it again in a later at-bat. Looking at his season numbers, it's hard to find any holes — excellent on-base percentage, acceptable power, decent contact rate, 30 stolen bases in 37 attempts. Lefties versus righties made little difference — a combined .322 AVG against lefties, a .329 average against righties. But since this was his first full season, it's not surprising that his numbers tailed off in the last month — his AVG/OBP/SLG in August were .257/.348/.356. After time in the fall instructional league, he went on to the Arizona Fall League where he was only .182/.333/.364 in seven games before he was shut down with a strained back injury.
Pettit spent time this year in all three outfield positions, although he spent most of his time in left field with Cedar Rapids and center field with Rancho Cucamonga, the latter move after Brad Coon was promoted to Double-A Arkansas. Kernels manager Ever Magallanes referred to his arm as "average," but how he runs his routes to balls in play is equally important. The Angels said near season's end that they intended to have Pettit play first base and third base in fall ball to enhance his resumé, but when he reached the AFL he played all seven games in the outfield (six in LF, one in CF) before he was shut down.
Entering 2008, Pettit should get every opportunity to make the Double-A Arkansas club. The Angels have compared his future to Robb Quinlan, who has experience as a corner infielder and corner outfielder. One observer compared Pettit to former Giants, Twins and Tigers outfielder Dan Gladden, whose rookie year in 1984 at age 26 resulted in a line of .351/.410/.447, although after that Gladden's numbers declined. In any case, it's probably best to remain a bit skeptical about Chris until he shows he can hold his own at upper levels against more experienced pitchers, some of whom have pitched in the major leagues. Outthinking young inexperienced pitchers is one thing, but guys with a few years under their belt are another, and so far he hasn't faced that test. But if his numbers hold up in 2008, then Chris will deserve to move up higher on the top prospect lists.
 Sean Rodriguez |
9. Sean Rodriguez IF-OF
Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'0" 190 lbs. DOB: 4/26/1985
Arkansas (Double-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .254/.345/.423 (585 TPA)
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This was the Travelers' first year in their new stadium, Dickey-Stephens Park, and so far the numbers indicate you don't want to be a hiter there. The Travs' home OPS (OBP + SLG) was .688, while on the road it was .739. Sean Rodriguez was one Trav hitter whose offense suffered at home. Batting in North Little Rock, his AVG/OBP/SLG were .236/.352/.333. On the road, he was .269/.339/.502.
A .502 SLG for a middle-infielder is more than acceptable. 13 of his 17 homers came on the road, as did 22 of his 31 doubles. Also note that his OBP at home was higher than on the road, which suggests that Sean adjusted to his home-park disadvantage by taking more walks. That tells you he has some baseball smarts, which figures because his father, Johnny Rodriguez, is a long-time hitting coach in the Florida Marlins system.
Sean represented the Angels in the Arizona Fall League, where his AVG/OBP/SLG were a disappointing .217/.298/.398, but he did homer and single in the AFL title game. He played 16 games at shortstop, five games at third base and one game at second base.
Sean's offensive numbers should pick up in 2008 when he's promoted to Triple-A and plays for the Salt Lake Bees in the high-octane Pacific Coast League, so a year from now we'll have to discount his offense numbers at home and in certain road parks.
Sean spent most of his 2007 season playing shortstop for the Travs, but did manage to appear in five games at center field. In 125 games at shortstop, he committed only 18 errors, which for a regular Texas League shortstop is outstanding as the infields are normally baked hard as brick by the summer sun. He led all league regular shortstops with a .970 fielding percentage, and was second in total chances at 599; he's not flashy but he's solid enough to play the position in the big leagues. The Angels have long projected Sean as a major-league utility player; at one time there was some scuttlebutt about him learning how to catch, but I think that idea has been abandoned.
With the Angels' middle infield depth, he may not reach Anaheim as a starter but he'll be a smart player who can be plugged in to fill a hole where needed. There are hints of more pop in his bat, and as he physically matures an increase in offensive power would find him a starting job, in Anaheim or elsewhere. A step in the right direction would be to reduce his strikeouts (132 in 587 TPA) and improve his on-base percentage, both of which would fit in with the Angels' “Contactball” philosophy.
 Nick Green |
8. Nick Green RHP
Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'4" 200 lbs. DOB: 8/20/1984
Arkansas (Double-A): 10-8 3.68 ERA, 107:32 K:BB,
AVG/OBP/SLG: .243/.282/.395, 1.10 WHIP (178.1 IP)
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Nick Green became known as “the 9:30 Guarantee” because he once promised an umpire that a home game with a 7:10 PM start would be finished by 9:30 PM. Green had a reputation as one of the league's fastest workers, but he was also one of the most durable. Green led the league in innings pitched (178.1 IP), averaging 6.4 IP per start, and was sixth in ERA at 3.68 ERA. Nick's velocity is usually in the high 80s, so he has to get by on location and his secondary pitches. His “plus” pitch has always been his changeup that can have a screwball action to right-handed batters with late sink. He also has a curveball, and added a slider in 2007.
Green's fastball tends to finish high in the zone, which results in a lot of fly balls — and home runs. As noted above, Dickey-Stephens Park is very pitcher-friendly. Green gave up 17 homers in 2007, the fourth highest in the league, with 12 of those on the road. His GO:AO ratio was 0.74 (lower than the team average 0.97), meaning that his strikeouts plus fly balls are greater than the number of groundouts he throws. On the bright side, he did a great job of holding baserunners — only 19 runners attempted to run on him all year, and of those only 10 were successful.
Nick's away numbers were less impressive than at home, as you might expect. His home ERA was 3.28, but his road ERA was 4.01. He was a much better pitcher in the second half, though, and his final four starts were on the road. In those four starts, his ERA was 2.78, so it looks like his second-half progress was legitimate; his Post All-Star Game ERA was 2.88.
Green is pretty much a lock to start 2008 at high-altitude Triple-A Salt Lake, which means his home runs allowed can't help but increase. He reminds me of Matt Wise, a right-hander in the Angels system in the late 1990s. Matt's plus pitch was also a changeup. Wise and Green are of similar physical stature. During his 2001 tour with Salt Lake, Wise gave up 19 HR in 123.1 IP — 10 HR at home in Salt Lake in 56.1 IP — and posted a 5.04 ERA. So if you want to use Wise as a template, expect Green's 2007 high ratio of fly balls and homers to worsen with the Bees.
I expect Nick will eventually wind up in a setup reliever role, similar to Wise who now pitches for Milwaukee. Hopefully Nick avoids the “Tommy John” surgery Matt suffered in 2003. Green could also evolve into a back-of-the-rotation starter if he can improve his secondary pitches.
 Bobby Wilson |
7. Bobby Wilson C
Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'0" 220 lbs. DOB: 4/8/1983
Arkansas (Double-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .271/.348/.420 (204 TPA)
Salt Lake (Triple-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .295/.336/.477 (140 TPA)
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If the rules allowed a designated hitter for catchers, Bobby Wilson would probably find himself in line for a major league job. Bobby's defensive development is pretty much complete. Thanks to manager Mike Scioscia, the Angels are an organization that places a high priority on its catchers, and in particular values their defensive skills over their bats.
Wilson was one of the more successful Texas League catchers this year at throwing out runners, nailing 48%. Promoted on July 2 to Triple-A Salt Lake, his PCL success rate was only 23%. A minor mechanical flaw was the culprit and reportedly has been resolved. I'm not a big fan of this stat anyway, because much of it depends on how well the pitcher holds on the baserunner. In comparison, Jeff Mathis' success rate with Salt Lake was 40% before his July 2 promotion to Anaheim.
Comparing Wilson to Mathis, you can find many similarities. Bobby is eight days younger than Jeff. Both are from Florida. Both have Tom Kotchman ties — Jeff played for Kotch with Provo in 2001, Bobby played for Provo in 2003 but was Casey Kotchman's teammate at Seminole High School in 2001. Both do an excellent job quarterbacking a game.
The biggest difference is athleticism. Jeff has cat reflexes behind the plate, a genetic gift. Bobby is built similar to former Angels catcher Bengie Molina, which means he'll have to work hard to stay in game shape. Fortunately he has that kind of work ethic. During the Triple-A All-Star break, Wilson came down to Orem and worked out with Kotch's Rookie-A team instead of taking a three-day holiday. That also shows leadership, as it demonstrated to the first-year kids the sacrifices necessary if you want to be one step from the big leagues. As with Molina, though, durability may become an issue in the long run. Wilson DH'd the final month of the 2006 season due to shoulder soreness (although he did catch in the Arizona Fall League), and this year he missed three weeks in May due to lower back pain. When he did return, Travs' manager Bobby Magallanes spelled him once in a while by playing him at first base or DH, although after his promotion to Triple-A he caught pretty much full-time.
As noted above, offense is a bonus when it comes to Angels organization catchers, but one nice aspect of Wilson's game is that he's an excellent contact hitter. Between Arkansas and Salt Lake, he struck out only once every 7.1 AB, which works well in the Angels' “Contactball” style of offense. He's not going to swipe many bases either. But he should be able to hit well enough to earn a major league job as a #2 catcher; anything better could get him a starting job somewhere.
Barring trades or injuries, Wilson is #4 on the depth chart behind Mathis, Mike Napoli and Ryan Budde. Rumors of a potential trade with the Florida Marlins might see Mathis or Napoli head home for the Sunshine State. But somewhere along the line, a big-league job will open up for Bobby.
 Terry Evans |
6. Terry Evans OF
Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'3" 205 lbs. DOB: 1/19/1982
Salt Lake (Triple-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .316/.352/.512 (505 TPA)
Anaheim (A.L.) AVG/OBP/SLG: .091/.231/.364 (13 TPA)
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A year after his astonishing rise from obscurity, Terry Evans got his first major league hit on June 20 when he hit a homer at Anaheim. A one-time organization player in the St. Louis Cardinals' system, Evans was traded to the Angels on July 5, 2006 in exchange for pitcher Jeff Weaver. Terry was off to an unexpectedly hot start in the Redbirds' system, and that trend continued for the rest of the year with Double-A Arkansas, posting a line of .309/.385/.553 (213 TPA).
Skeptics remain, however, for two reasons. It's pretty rare for an organization player to suddenly blossom into a legitimate prospect, and at age 26 in January he's a bit behind the age curve for his level. The other reason is his low walk rate. More on that in a moment.
Let's start our look at his offensive game with a statistical analysis, but one you won't see anywhere else. As I've written many times on FutureAngels.com, when you look at PCL stats you have to go beyond the basic home/road split because so many PCL ballparks are at a high-altitude or otherwise have extreme hitter-friendly attributes. In addition to Salt Lake, they're Las Vegas, Albuquerque, Tucson and Colorado Springs.
When we split out Evans' 2007 performance in those five parks against the rest of the league, here's what we get:
High-Altitude AVG/OBP/SLG: .328/.373/.522
Pitcher-Friendly/Other AVG/OBP/SLG: .284/.297/.485
In 33 games at non-hitter friendly parks, in 138 plate appearances, Evans took two walks. One every 69.0 trips to the plate.
In the high-altitude parks, he took 24 walks in 368 plate appearances, one every 15.3 trips to the plate.
No, I can't explain it either.
Why such a radical disparity?! All I can think of is that pitchers are more careful with the strike zone in high-altitude parks, which means Terry gets fewer good pitches and therefore more walks. Your guess is as good as mine.
Plate patience isn't everything — Garret Anderson has had a fairly productive career taking relatively few walks — and such a hitter can flourish in the Angels' “Contactball” style of play which emphasizes runners in motion and putting the ball in play. But for Terry to fit into that mold, he'll need to reduce his strikeout rate.
Evans has five-tool potential, but he still has much to learn about hitting. He tends to chase pitches down and away. He uses the entire field, so sometimes he can poke that ball to right field, but he needs to pass on those pitches when they're out of the zone. Major league pitchers with major league stuff will find that hole and exploit it pretty quickly.
Although he's more comfortable in center field, Evans played more games in RF (60) than CF (46). He has the arm and range to play all three outfield positions. The Angels can afford to move either Reggie Willits or Nathan Haynes, two outfielders with similar tools and not much pop, to make room for Evans' bat.
I think eventually Evans will wind up in the majors as a useful fourth outfielder, although the recent signing of free-agent outfielder Torii Hunter probably sends him back to Triple-A for 2008 unless the Angels move an outfielder or suffer an injury. He could work his way into a major-league lineup somewhere with more plate discipline. “Discipline” doesn't necessarily mean more walks — it can also mean reducing strikeouts to put the ball in play and advance runners. If he can do that, it'll be the difference between fourth-outfielder salary and a nice retirement based on one of those big fat full-time starting outfielder paychecks.
 Hank Conger |
5. Hank Conger C
Bats: Both Throws: Right 6'0" 205 lbs. DOB: 1/29/1988
Cedar Rapids (Low-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .295/.336/.477 (318 TPA)
Tempe (Rookie-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .267/.267/.333 (15 TPA)
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Injuries aside, Hank Conger's young career continues to progress nicely. The Angels' first-round pick in the June 2006 draft began his career last summer with Rookie-A Tempe, but played in only 19 games before breaking the hamate bone in his right wrist. I wrote a year ago that it's not an uncommon injury for hitters but can sometimes take up to a year for hand strength to return, so I cautioned that his power numbers might not be what some may wish. By that measure, Conger did better than expected; if he'd had enough at-bats, his .477 SLG would have been third in the Midwest League.
Injuries shelved Conger twice more in 2007. The first was lower back spasms that placed him on the disabled list June 23. After three rehab games with Tempe in late July, Hank returned to Cedar Rapids only to go back on the DL August 7 when he suffered a hamstring injury rounding first base after a hit. Conger came back ten days later and played through the playoffs, then reported to fall instructional league. In a September 20 game at the A's camp, Conger rounded second base, hit the brakes, and aggravated the same hamstring. He was shut down for the rest of fall ball; the early plan was for him to resume work in October with Team USA, but the Angels decided to send him home until spring.
I've been asked many times whether the hamstring injuries might mean he should move to a different position. The answer is no. Hamstrings really don't affect catchers much defensively. Try standing and squatting intermittently until it starts to hurt. What part of your legs hurt? Not the hamstrings. A hamstring injury is common to sprinters and other running activities. The issue seems to be more one of conditioning. Casey Kotchman had a repetitive hamstring injury in 2003 but changed his off-season conditioning program and it hasn't been a problem since.
Given Hank's physical size, he's in the same genetic category as Bobby Wilson. He'll need to work hard to stay in agile physical shape to handle a full-season workload. 2007 was his first full year, and it's not unusual to see those players run out of gas or suffer injuries as they've never conditioned themselves before for a five-month 140-game grind.
Conger's defensive skills are questioned by some, but at this stage he's much better than you've been told. His aptitude for the game is “off the charts” according to one observer. Midwest League opponents complimented his game-calling and how well he handled his pitching staff. He did an excellent job of blocking pitches, allowing only five passed balls in 70 games. Hank needs to improve his lateral movement and flexibility, which will come with improved conditioning. He's also aggressive trying to pick off base runners, a skill encouraged by an organization whose major league skipper is a former All-Star catcher. He tends to rush his mechanics a little because he's young, but that should disappear with maturity.
Conger's calling card is his bat, of course, and as noted above he had one of the best slugging percentages in the Midwest League. His swing tends to get long at times when he tries to lift the ball with an uppercut. Hank needs to trust his natural strength and drive the ball by levelling his swing. Conger is a switch-hitter; his 2007 splits with Cedar Rapids suggest he's more successful so far against right-handed pitchers (.304/.343/.523) than southpaws (.250/.318/.329). His strikeout rate (once every 6.0 AB) is acceptable for a power hitter, but I'd like to see him take more walks which would suggest increased selectivity at the plate.
Hank is pretty much a lock to start 2008 at Rancho Cucamonga, about 50 miles from his hometown of Huntington Beach. This should be a breakout year offensively, more than a year removed from the hamate surgery, and with the hitter-friendly ballparks in the California League. He's probably three years away from the majors, which would put him in Anaheim somewhere around age 23.
 Sean O'Sullivan |
4. Sean O'Sullivan RHP
Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'1" 220 lbs. DOB: 9/1/1987
Cedar Rapids (Low-A): 10-7 2.22 ERA, 125:40 K:BB,
AVG/OBP/SLG: .227/.283/.293, 1.11 WHIP (158.1 IP)
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Sean O'Sullivan's stellar season as a 19-year old won him the Angels' minor league pitcher of the year award. Originally a third-round draft-and-follow pick in the June 2005 draft, he waited to sign until May 2006, missing a year of development. There was also concern that he might have been overdrafted, as his reported low 90s velocity in high school had dropped by about 5 MPH. By the end of 2007 season, though, the sentiment was that his velocity had returned, but that really wasn't as important as the basic fact he was a pitcher, not just a thrower.
O'Sullivan's repertoire includes a sinker, slider and changeup, but his location and command were excellent this year. He keeps the ball down, works the corners of the strike zone, and already showed the ability to keep batters confused about his game plan.
At 6'1" 220 lbs., conditioning might be a concern. O'Sullivan missed two or three starts in early June with a lower back strain, and upon his return it took him four starts to build up to a significant endurance. After that, he was lights out and worked at least seven innings in eight of his remaining twelve starts.
The Midwest League is generally known as a pitcher's league. I don't have a feel for whether the new Veterans Stadium would trend towards favoring hitters or pitchers — my impression is that it's generally neutral — but O'Sullivan definitely preferred the home crowd. His home ERA was 1.19 with an AVG of .187, while his road ERA was 3.14 with a .260 AVG. Right-handed batters were slightly more successful against him, posting a .604 OPS, while lefties had a .541 OPS. His ability to hold runners on base seems limited, as base stealers were successful in 24 of 27 attempts.
The next step at age 20 will be with Rancho Cucamonga as one of the youngest starting pitchers in the California League, which is a hitter-friendly circuit. His mound savvy will be tested by the high-octane ballparks in High Desert and Lancaster; he'll need to keep the ball down and survive those games with his ERA reasonably intact. His 1.34 GO/AO ratio was about team average (1.32). Right now Sean projects as a potential #3-#4 starting pitcher in the majors, although his ceiling might be higher with more polish and a bit more velocity.
 Jordan Walden |
3. Jordan Walden RHP
Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'5" 225 lbs. DOB: 11/16/1987
Orem (Rookie-A): 1-1 3.08 ERA, 63:17 K:BB,
AVG/OBP/SLG: .209/.271/.277, 1.03 WHIP (64.1 IP)
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It's premature to call Jordan Walden the next Roger Clemens, but that comparison has already been made and you'll start hearing it more in the years to come. He's also been compared to Josh Beckett, a name Angels fans know all too well from the 2007 ALDS playoffs. Walden cites Beckett as his favorite major league pitcher.
At Mansfield (TX) High School, Jordan made the Dallas Morning News All-Area Team his junior year in 2005 as an outfielder and his senior year in 2006 as a pitcher (7-1, 0.86 ERA, 95 K in 49 IP). Walden pitched through a groin injury that year, reducing his velocity. Although he was projected in January 2006 by Baseball America as the best high school prospect in the nation, the velocity drop and signability concerns dropped him to the 12th round, where the Angels selected him. Jordan went on to Grayson Community College (John Lackey's alma mater) as a draft-and-follow. His velocity returned, typically in the mid-90s, and developed his slider and changeup. Jordan signed on May 30, the last day before he would have gone back into the draft pool for the June 2007 draft.
Mechanical consistency was a bit of an issue at Grayson, a problem that carried over into his first half of the season with Orem. Once he got into the groove, though, his velocity continued to improve. At season's end he was clocked at 99 MPH and 100 MPH. His slider was a bit better than average, and his changeup was average for the rookie-league level.
Although soft-spoken in interviews, it doesn't carry over into his relationships with teammates or his mound presence. Walden has no problem pitching inside, and in the Pioneer League playoffs showed he can dominate under pressure. Owlz manager Tom Kotchman arranged his playoff rotation so Walden would be on the mound for Game #2 of the best-of-three championship series against Great Falls. After Orem won Game #1 at home, the two teams went to Great Falls for Games #2 and #3. Jordan squared off against ace Aaron Poreda, who was named the league's pitcher of the year and has been compared to Randy Johnson. Walden pitched eight innings, struck out ten, walked one, allowed four hits and one unearned run. (Orem went on to win the game in 16 innings.)
Jordan will probably start 2008 in Cedar Rapids, although I wouldn't be surprised if he skips that level and makes the Rancho Cucamonga club out of spring training. He needs to keep working at his mechanical consistency, and develop his secondary pitches. I suspect they'll add another pitch to his repertoire, such as a cut fastball, by the time he reaches Double-A. If he can do all that, he could be in Anaheim by 2010, and eventually could be a #2 starter or even an ace.
 Nick Adenhart |
2. Nick Adenhart RHP
Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'3" 185 lbs. DOB: 8/24/1986
Arkansas (Double-A): 10-8 3.65 ERA, 116:65 K:BB,
AVG/OBP/SLG: .273/.362/.367, 1.46 WHIP (153.0 IP)
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Just to make a point ... Nick Adenhart is fifteen months older than Jordan Walden, yet pitched three levels higher than Jordan in 2007.
The reason I make this point is that I've seen too many on-line fan sites write off Adenhart because he didn't totally blow away the Texas League as a 20-year old (turning 21 in August), even though Nick was one of the youngest starting pitchers in the league.
He didn't pitch badly. In fact, he pitched quite well, although not as dominant as 2006. Adenhart's 3.65 ERA was the fifth lowest among regular starting pitchers in the league, was third in the league in strikeouts with 116, and was fifth in innings pitched at 153. But he was also fifth in walks with 65.
Adenhart's basic problem was pitch count. A pitcher will face in Double-A more patient batters than he's ever seen before in his career, some of whom have played in the major leagues. Stuff that might fool younger, inexperienced batters might not be good enough any more. To adjust, he has to "pitch to contact," meaning he tries to induce the batter into swinging at a pitch likely to result in an out. His 1.45 GO/AO ratio and low home run rate (one every 21.9 innings) suggest that's the best strategy for him with his stuff.
Nick's repertoire includes a mid-90s fastball, average curveball and above average changeup. He brings an unflappable, almost detached demeanor to the mound. His delivery is easy and casual, but he can improve his command by smoothing the lower half of his mechanics. Another nitpick is the need to improve holding on baserunners, as 21 of 29 were successful stealing against him.
Because Nick tore an elbow ligament his senior year in high school requiring “Tommy John” surgery, fragility is always a concern. Adenhart was placed on the seven-day disabled list June 21 with a sore throwing shoulder, skipping the Texas League All-Star Game. Two weeks passed between starts. Although the rest did him good — he posted a 2.92 ERA in July — his final month was his worst in 2007, posting a 5.01 ERA and hitting eight batters (he hit nine the rest of the year).
Adenhart is likely to start 2008 in Triple-A at Salt Lake, but his name is commonly mentioned in trade rumors, most notably a trade with the Florida Marlins for third baseman Miguel Cabrera. The Angels added RHP Jon Garland on November 19 in trade for shortstop Orlando Cabrera. Garland can be a free agent after 2008, but if he signs an extension it would buy Adenhart more time to develop. If the Angels keep Adenhart but move another starting pitcher, that will increase the urgency for Nick to progress into a major league pitcher for 2009. He'll have to demonstrate he can get through a full season healthy and can pitch more efficiently to keep his pitch count down.
 Brandon Wood |
1. Brandon Wood 3B-SS
Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'3" 185 lbs. DOB: 3/2/1985
Salt Lake (Triple-A): AVG/OBP/SLG: .272/.338/.497 (488 TPA)
Anaheim (A.L.) AVG/OBP/SLG: .152/.152/.273 (33 TPA)
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Brandon Wood made his major league debut this year on April 26, called up after Chone Figgins was injured in spring training and Maicer Izturis suffered a hamstring injury. Wood had three callups, including the standard September callup when the rosters expand. He really wasn't expected to win a full-time job; all three callups were intended to introduce him to the pace and intensity of major-league baseball, so he could take that exposure back to Salt Lake and prepare his game for the next level.
Wood was the #1 rated prospect on the FutureAngels.com Top 10 Prospects list after the 2005 season, when he hit 43 homers for Rancho Cucamonga to set an Angels single-season minor-league record. He kept the #1 slot in 2006 when he posted a .907 OPS with Double-A Arkansas as a 21-year old. Baseball America named him the Angels' top prospect after those seasons.
In Triple-A at age 22, it was expected that he might struggle a bit, being so young for the level. ( Eleven of the thirty-seven players on the Rookie-A Orem Owlz' roster were older than Brandon.) An added burden was learning third base, since Orlando Cabrera and several other prospects blocked his path to the starting shortstop job.
Wood handled the transition to 3B just fine. He needs to improve his footwork at the position, but that's not surprising given his inexperience. Brandon appeared in 74 games at third and committed 16 errors in 201 chances for a .920 fielding percentage. He also stayed sharp at shortstop, appearing in 34 games with a .962 fielding percentage (six errors).
Brandon's strikeout rate in 2006 alarmed some observers, as he whiffed once every 3.0 at-bats. That rate improved in 2007 to once every 3.6 at-bats. A high strikeout rate is not unusual for young power hitters. Mike Schmidt during his Triple-A season with Eugene in 1972 struck out once every 3.0 at-bats. Like Wood, he was a 22-year old power-hitter who was moved around the infield as the Phillies tried to prepare him for the majors. Schmidt played 76 games at 2B, 52 games at 3B, and five games at shortstop. As did Wood, Schmidt got a brief exposure to the big leagues that year, appearing in 13 games, and posted an AVG/OBP/SLG of .206/.325/.294 in 34 AB. In 1973, his first full major-league season, Schmidt hit .196/.324/.373 in 132 games, striking out once every 2.7 AB. In today's Internet world, online fans would be dismissing him as a “bust” and spamming boards demanding Schmidt be traded. Of course, Schmidt went on to an 18-year Hall of Fame career, all with the Phillies, because management knew talent when they saw it and didn't overreact to hysteria.
In the discussion upstream about Terry Evans, I talked about the need to use a special split statistic with Salt Lake numbers because so many of the PCL parks (Salt Lake, Las Vegas, Albuquerque, Tucson, Colorado Springs) are hitter-friendly. Applying the same analysis to Wood, here's what we get:
High-Altitude AVG/OBP/SLG: .279/.352/.472
Pitcher-Friendly/Other AVG/OBP/SLG: .258/.305/.553
That's reassuring, because his SLG was actually higher in the “normal” parks than in the high-altitude parks. Brandon hit a home run every 12.0 AB in the normal parks, while the rate was 25.4 in the high-altitude parks.
Wood is still not a complete product, but he's very close. The Angels corrected a slight mechanical flaw in his swing in September. He'll need to reduce his strikeout rate, but he won't learn how to adjust to major-league pitching unless he's facing major-league pitchers. A return trip to Salt Lake in 2008 won't do much good offensively. As did the Phillies with Schmidt, the Angels need to bite the bullet and let Wood play full-time so he can become familiar with major-league pitching. Whether he plays at third base or shortstop is unclear for now; the Orlando Cabrera trade opened up shortstop to a competition with Erick Aybar and Maicer Izturis next spring. Third base is also a possibility, with Chone Figgins shifting to another position. Lurking in the shadows is Dallas McPherson, recovering from back surgery in January; if he can return to health, McPherson at 3B and Wood at SS add lots of power to the lineup.
As with Nick Adenhart, though, Wood's name is commonly mentioned in trade rumors. If the Angels acquire Marlins' third baseman Miguel Cabrera, and Wood isn't sent to Florida in exchange, then he's pretty much the heir apparent at shortstop. Whether it's Anaheim, Miami, or another town, 2008 is the year for Brandon Wood to play regularly in the major leagues and start a long career.
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Prior FutureAngels.com Top 10 Prospects Reports:
ABBREVIATIONS:
AB — At-Bats
AVG — Batting Average
BB — Walks
ERA — Earned Run Average
GO/AO — Ground Outs to All Outs Ratio
IP — Innings Pitched
K — Strikeouts
K:BB Ratio — Strikeouts to Walks
AVG — Opponents' Batting Average
OBP — On-Base Percentage
OPS — OBP + SLG
RISP — Runners in Scoring Position
SLG — Slugging Percentage
TPA — Total Plate Appearances
WHIP — (Walks + Hits)/(Innings Pitched)