2008 FutureAngels.com Top 10 Prospects

November 15, 2008

This article is copyright © 2008 Stephen C. Smith DBA FutureAngels.com. It may not be reprinted elsewhere without the prior expressed written permission of the author. To obtain permission, e-mail Stephen at home@futureangels.com.

If you want to believe the pundits, the Angels' farm system is in decline.

Too many years of sacrificing first-round draft picks to sign expensive free agents.

“High risk” draft choices going unsigned because the Angels supposedly weren't willing to pay enough. (Even though in most cases it was a matter of the draftee wanting to go to college or play another sport.)

Drafting towards the bottom of each round, because the parent club does so well and draft picks are in inverse order of winning percentage.

Despite all this pessimism, every one of the Angels' minor league teams went to the post-season in 2008.

(You can quibble about Rancho Cucamonga, which lost a one-game sudden death playoff with Inland Empire to see who got the last post-season slot ...)

The team with the worst win-loss record, the Double-A Arkansas Travelers (62-78), wound up winning the Texas League pennant, thanks for the miracle of split-season scheduling.

If you count the Dominican Summer League academy, the organization's minor league record was 423-342 (.553).

For me, particularly exciting is seeing some of scouting director Eddie Bane's “high-risk, high-reward” draft picks emerge onto this year's FutureAngels.com Top 10 Prospects list.

In recent years, I've tended to go with players at the upper levels of the organization, because they've succeeded against tougher competition. Once players reach Double-A, they start to see opponents who have played in the big leagues. Triple-A is filled with guys on the cusp, guys who've been to the majors, or just those “Four-A” types who succeed brilliantly at the Triple-A level but can't get over the mental hump of major league competition.

Everyone in the business says the biggest hurdle of all is making the leap from Triple-A to the major leagues. The game is faster, it's more intense, fewer mistakes are made. A hitter at the Class-A level will see a couple mistake pitches every game, maybe every at-bat. At the Triple-A level, maybe once every game or two. At the big-league level, you can't get away with being a “mistake hitter.” You have to be able to outthink the pitcher, because he's going to figure out pretty quickly where your holes are.

So given all that, you're expecting me to list mostly Double-A and Triple-A guys, right?

Sorry to disappoint.

I feel so strongly about the young talent at lower levels of the organization, I want to make a statement by tilting this year towards those prospects. Eddie Bane's “ballsy” drafts have acquired talent that might be flying under the radar of professional analysts right now, but not for much longer.

Let's go over the basic eligibility rules for the FutureAngels.com Top 10 Prospects list.

I'm often asked, why only ten? Why not 20 or 30 or more?

The answer is simple. The further down you go, the more meaningless it becomes.

Baseball America determined from a study years ago that only 1 of 10 minor leaguers ever makes it to the big leagues for at least one game. Of those, only 1 of 4 will play five years in the majors.

Combine those two numbers, and it means that only 1 in 40 minor leaguers will becomes a big-league regular. In a typical year, an organization might have 200 minor leaguers under contract. Applying the 1 in 40 rule, it means that on the average only five of them will emerge as big-league regulars. Applying the 1 in 10 rule, it means that at best 20 of them will even make it to the majors for one game.

So what's the point of a long list if only five or so will be big-league regulars?

The Baseball America Prospect Handbook does a Top 30 list for each organization, but their analysts admit privately that once you get past 20, arguing the difference between the rankings is meaningless. So I'd rather concentrate on giving you in-depth analysis of the ten guys I think you should watch, rather than a long list of names you can look up yourself and figure out pretty quickly they're not going to be major-league regulars.

As with Baseball America, players are eligible for my list so long as they don't have 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the majors.

Let's also restate my definition of “Top 10”. The Top 10 What? The Top 10 talent? The first ten to make it to the big leagues? The ten players the Angels care about the most?

For me, it's a combination of all those factors. Baseball America tends to look at a player's “ceiling”, i.e. how much talent potential he has. I look at that but also take into consideration the parent club's needs. For example, I might give slightly less weight to a starting pitcher prospect if the parent club is deep in starters. I give that more importance than would Baseball America, because I'm considering how he fits into the Angels' plans, short-range or long-range. BA gives more weight to the player's likelihood to star in the big leagues, somewhere, sometime.

Sure, I look at statistics, but the biggest flaw in statistically-obsessed top prospect reviews is that they lack context. Triple-A Salt Lake, for example, is a very hitter-friendly park. But you can't just look at a Bees player's home-road splits, because there are other super-friendly parks in the league. So I'll go one step beyond and tell you how that player did in the hitter-friendly parks versus the neutral or pitcher-friendly parks.

“Stathead” analyses also overlook basic context such as whether a player had an injury or was trying to change his mechanics or learn a new pitch. I go watch these players myself and talk to their coaches, so I can add some insight you might not get elsewhere. I also post videos of these players, so you can watch them and decide for yourself.

Just because someone shows up on this list, it doesn't mean he's a sure-fire future major league star. It's just a snapshot of the organization at one point in time. Guys move on and off the list due to circumstance. In the November 2006 report, I had Jose Arredondo at #8. (Baseball America next spring had him at #13.) I noted that Jose had some “mental maturation” issues. In 2007, Arredondo was suspended from the Double-A Arkansas team, eventually demoted to High-A Rancho Cucamonga and posted a poor second half. I dropped Jose from the November 2007 report, not because he had suddenly lost his talent, but obviously his career was at a crossroads. Arredondo got some guidance from Preston Gomez and others in the organization, and took off in 2008. Now he's a prime candidate to replace Francisco Rodriguez as the Angels' closer should Frankie leave as a free agent.

In addition to Arredondo, two other former Top 10 players graduate from eligibility. Brandon Wood and Sean Rodriguez were both on the 2007 list, but now have more than 130 at-bats in the majors. Brandon spent 2008 trying to alter his hitting mechanics to length the time his bat passes through the strike zone, but he still has some pitch selection issues to resolve. Sean got 167 at-bats this year after so many of the Angels' infielders went down with injuries. As in 2007, he still shows surprising power in the minors — 21 dingers in 66 games for Salt Lake — and is versatile enough to play any infield or outfield position.

If you're a player or a loved one, don't take it personally if you're not on the list. In a typical season, the Angels will have around 200 minor leaguers under contract. That means 190 players don't get mentioned.

So with all those qualifiers, let's tick off 190 ballplayers and their families . . .


Luis Jimenez

10. Luis Jimenez 3B
Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'1" 170 lbs. DOB: 1/18/1988
Orem (Rookie-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .331/.361/.630 (302 TPA)
Click Here to watch a video clip

Luis Jimenez edged teammates Angel Castillo and Roberto Lopez to win the Pioneer League home run crown with 15 homers. (The Pioneer League has a 76-game schedule.) He was known to teammates and fans as “Lucho.” In fact, early in the season he was introduced by the Orem Owlz' public address announcers as just “Lucho.”

Jimenez was signed as a 17-year old out of the Dominican Republic and spent the last two seasons at the Angels' Dominican academy in San Pedro de Macoris. In 2007, he was the Dominican Summer League's player of the year, leading the DSL in homers (11), slugging percentage (.531) and RBI (55). (The DSL has a 70-game schedule.)

Many Latin players spend their first year in the U.S. at the Angels' minor league complex in Tempe, where they can attend English language and American culture classes, but the Angels chose to send Jimenez to Orem, which is technically considered Advanced Rookie-A, one level above Tempe.

The Pioneer League is a notorious hitter-friendly league, which makes it hard to judge players by statistics, but looking at Lucho's 2007 and 2008 numbers you find several positive trends. Leading two leagues in homers is obvious, but less obvious is that for a power hitter he has a relatively low strikeout rate. In the DSL, Jimenez struck out once every 9.5 at-bats, and with Orem it was still an impressive rate of once every 6.3 at-bats. Like most Dominicans, he rarely walks, once again proving the adage that “you don't walk off the island.”

One observer praised Lucho's hand-eye coordination as “one of the best I've ever seen.” He can hit any pitch for power. As with many young hitters, his problem is going to be pitch selection, specifically knowing his strike zone. A batter's stike zone isn't the same as the strike zone in the rule book; for example, Vlad Guerrero's strike zone is “from his nose to his toes,” to quote Rex Hudler. In critical situations, Jimenez tends to chase pitches out of the zone rather than being patient and waiting for his pitch. This can be seen in his stats with runners on base. Luis hit .355 with the bases empty, .313 with runners on, .272 with runners on and two outs, .292 with runners in scoring position (RISP), and a poor .192 with RISP and two outs. Pitchers figured out that they didn't have to throw him strikes, and instead expanded Lucho's strike zone by throwing him borderline pitches outside of the rule book zone.

Originally the Owlz' third baseman, Luis was relegated to DH after an August 8 injury to his throwing shoulder. He suffered a deep bone bruise diving back into first on a pickoff play, then later in the game made it worse diving after a line drive. When healthy, his superior hand-eye coordination helps in the field too, with good lateral range and a strong arm. He's a natural leader on the field and in the dugout.

Jimenez seems a lock to open 2009 at third base for Cedar Rapids; the Midwest League is as notorious for being pitcher-friendly as the Pioneer League is for being hitter-friendly. He needs to understand his strike zone and how pitchers will expand it to get him out. An increase in his walk rate will signal improvement. If that happens, then the sky is the limit for Lucho.


Matt Brown

9. Matt Brown 3B-1B
Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'0" 200 lbs. DOB: 8/8/1982
Salt Lake (Triple-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .320/.373/.580 (437 TPA)
Anaheim (A.L.) AVG/OBP/SLG: .053/.100/.105 (20 TPA)
Click Here to watch a video clip

Matt Brown may be the Rodney Dangerfield of the Angels' farm system. He gets no respect from baseball analysts.

Matt has never appeared as a Top 30 prospect in the Baseball America Prospect Handbook. He's never made the FutureAngels.com Top 10 Prospects list. And yet he's made token appearances in the big leagues the last two years.

Last July, Brown was named the PCL Star of the Game after going 2 for 3 with a double, single and walk in the Triple-A All-Star Game. That was followed by an invitation to join the USA Olympic team in Beijing.

So why does Matt get no respect?

Take his splits. Please.

As I've written in past years, when analyzing Pacific Coast League numbers you can't just do a home/away split to get a sense of what a player does in “neutral” parks. Salt Lake's Franklin Covey Field is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the PCL, but it's not the only one. Albuquerque, Colorado Springs, Las Vegas and Tucson are also notorious hitter parks due to altitude and/or climate.

So I calculate a split based not on home/away, but hitter-friendly versus the rest.

Here are Brown's splits for Salt Lake in 2007 and 2008:

2007:
Hitter-Friendly AVG/OBP/SLG: .293/.367/.560 (297 TPA)
Other AVG/OBP/SLG: .240/.340/.400 (144 TPA)

2008:
Hitter-Friendly AVG/OBP/SLG: .338/.387/.620 (336 TPA)
Other AVG/OBP/SLG: .261/.327/.446 (101 TPA)

In neutral or pitcher-friendly parks, his numbers (naturally) are lower, although the significance of that difference is arguable.

Looking at other numbers, perhaps the biggest positive is dramatically reducing his strikeout rate. At Double-A Arkansas in 2006, Matt struck out once every 4.77 at-bats. In 2007, his first year at Triple-A, the rate worsened to 3.69. But at Salt Lake this year, the rate improved to 5.00, quite acceptable for a power hitter. Brown's pitch selection showed significant improvement over 2007. He had a reputation for recognizing curve balls but struggling with fast balls; that became much less of an issue this year.

Brown is adequate defensively at third base. The Angels gave him some time at second base in 2007, but he's really better suited for a corner infield position. Matt actually played more games at first base (40) than third base (33) with the Bees in 2008; he requires much more experience at first to make him a competent major league player at the position.

Matt has shown a temper on the field, but he's largely outgrown that. He's a very determined young man, and that determination has carried him into the big leagues, beyond what some might have expected. He needs to build on that and find the confidence to play every day at the major-league level.

At this point, the Angels' 2009 infield is unclear. Chone Figgins is the incumbent third baseman, but some analysts speculate that the Angels might move him to left field to replace Garret Anderson who can leave via free agency. That would open 3B for Brandon Wood, although another scenario could be to play Wood at shortstop and give Brown a shot at third. It's more likely that Matt will return to Salt Lake to begin 2009, playing more first base while staying sharp at third. He showed progress between 2007 and 2008, and if he continues that progress in 2009 then he could find himself in the big leagues for good.


Kevin Jepsen

8. Kevin Jepsen RHP
Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'3" 215 lbs. DOB: 7/26/1984
Arkansas (Double-A): 2-1 1.42 ERA, 35:18 K:BB,
AVG/OBP/SLG: .198/.310/.207, 1.26 WHIP (31.2 IP)
Salt Lake (Triple-A): 1-3 2.35 ERA, 21:12 K:BB,
AVG/OBP/SLG: .213/.315/.363, 1.26 WHIP (23.0 IP)
Anaheim (A.L.): 0-1 4.32 ERA, 7:4 K:BB,
AVG/OBP/SLG: .250/.333/.344, 1.44 WHIP (8.1 IP)
Click Here to watch a video clip

Kevin Jepsen overcame injuries and adversity to go in one year from the Class-A Rancho Cucamonga bullpen to the major leagues with the Angels.

It was a long time coming.

A second-round pick in the June 2002 draft, Jepsen's first full season with Cedar Rapids in 2003 came to an end after surgery to remove bone chips. He returned to the Kernels in 2004 and made a full season's worth of starts (27), but then underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum. He didn't pitch again until July 2005, making seven rehab starts with Tempe before reporting to Rancho Cucamonga in August for four starts, none lasting more than four innings.

So in 2006 the Angels moved him to the bullpen and returned him to Rancho Cucamonga. He showed the high 90s gas that led the Angels to draft him so high in 2002, but had little control (46:34 K:BB ratio in 2006, 50:38 in 2007).

Jepsen began 2008 with a promotion to the Double-A Arkansas Travelers. Whether it was maturity or good health, he finally found himself, evolving into the Travs' closer. Dickey-Stephens Park is perhaps the most pitcher-friendly park in the Texas League, but if you look at his home/road splits his ERA was better on the road (0.53) than at home (2.45) with a better WHIP (1.11/1.43) and average against (.143/.255).

The accolades rolled in. Jepsen was named to the Texas League's North Division All-Star Team. The Futures Game. The USA Olympic baseball team.

And in the middle of all that, got a promotion to Triple-A Salt Lake.

Jepsen's stuff is electric and hard. His velocity is consistently in the mid-90s, and gets a lot of swings on high hard pitches. His curve has improved dramatically from a few years ago; pitches that used to bounce in front of the plate are now low in or below the strike zone. He also has an average changeup. Jepsen's groundouts to all outs (GO/AO) ratio was excellent, 2.73 with Arkansas and 2.36 in Salt Lake.

Kevin showed aggression and confidence on the mound, which carried him to the big leagues. The Angels had enough faith in Jepsen to place him on the post-season roster instead of veteran Justin Speier, who struggled throughout the season.

With the probable departure of Francisco Rodriguez (and possibly Darren Oliver) via free agency, the Angels' bullpen may see a significant overhaul. Jose Arredondo is probably the leading candidate to succeed Rodriguez, as is Scot Shields although Scot is probably more valuable for his versatility and endurance. Jepsen and Jason Bulger will have every opportunity in spring training to fill the vacancies, but so far Bulger has been unable to translate his Triple-A success into major league results. That gives Jepsen the edge, and a spot on this year's Top 10 list.

If he can polish his curve and reduce the walks, Jepsen projects as a possible future closer.


Peter Bourjos

7. Peter Bourjos OF
Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'1" 175 lbs. DOB: 3/31/1987
Rancho Cucamonga (Low-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .295/.326/.444 (540 TPA)
Click Here to watch a video clip

It was a tale of two seasons for Peter Bourjos, who played his first full season of pro ball. (He missed two months with Cedar Rapids in 2007 due to a broken finger.) Pete's AVG/OBP/SLG for the first half with Rancho Cucamonga were .331/.366/.470; in the second half, his numbers were .264/.290/.421. As with many young players, the second half can definitely go south due to fatigue; Pete followed a .393 June average with .215 in July and .254 in August. Some of that might have been fatigue, some of it may have been the after-effect of hyperextending his left elbow on a swing on June 5, which cost him eleven days out of the lineup.

In any case, Bourjos remains one of the Angels' top outfielder prospects. Pete and Kernels outfielder Jeremy Moore are considered to be the fastest runners in the system, although Bourjos is the more polished product at this stage. Pete was 50 for 60 in stolen bases this year with the Quakes (which led the California League), but the Angels believe he can crank it up even higher. He worked during spring training with Angels coach Ron Roenicke, and continued to refine his skills during fall instructional league with Angels field coordinator Bruce Hines. He's worrying less about getting picked off and more on “going forward.”

Bourjos is the son of former Giants outfielder Chris Bourjos, who had the proverbial cup of coffee with San Francisco in 1980. Chris is now a scout with the Brewers. Prospects who are the offspring of former pro ballplayers often are ahead of the development curve because they grow up in a professional baseball environment.

A natural right-handed hitter, many speedy leadoff types are encouraged to switch-hit, but that doesn't seem to be in the cards for Pete, who tried it briefly in high school without success.

Because he projects as a leadoff hitter, Bourjos needs to work on maximizing his on-base percentage. He drew only 19 walks in 2008, far worse than his 22 walks in 2006 when he played only a half-season with Rookie-A Orem. He also struck out 96 times — once every 5.3 at-bats — and in an organization that values contact to advance runners, he'll need to work on that too. It remains to see how much power he'll ultimately develop, although his ten triples were second in the league to teammate P.J. Phillips. But he's already one of the better bunters in the system.

Defensively, Bourjos is a natural center fielder and the best in the organization except for Torii Hunter. He already runs his routes well and has an above average arm.

Double-A Arkansas seems to be the next logical step for Peter, who will have just turned 22 when the season opens next April. That's pretty young for the Texas League, and he'll start to see more experienced pitchers, including a few who've pitched in the majors. He's projected as the eventual replacement for Hunter, but that might not be for many years.


Ryan Chaffee
(Photo Courtesy
Chipola College)

6. Ryan Chaffee RHP
Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'1" 205 lbs. DOB: 5/18/1988
Did Not Play — Injured

I've been writing these top prospect reports since November 2001. Ryan Chaffee becomes the first player I've ever included on this list without his playing a single inning for the Angels. The reason is that the early reports in the organization about Chaffee are so glowing, I wanted you to know about this special player. A year from now, he might just be the top prospect on the 2009 list.

The Angels selected Chaffee in the third round of the June 2008 draft, but he never played because he underwent surgery for a broken foot suffered during his spring season with Chipola College. Even though the injury hadn't fully healed, Ryan started for Chipola on May 18 to win the Florida junior college title. He pitched a complete game shutout, striking out 18 on only two days' rest. Chipola coach Jeff Johnson called Ryan a “warrior,” praising his competitiveness. That sentiment was echoed by Orem Owlz manager Tom Kotchman last June, who told me that Chaffee is “one of the most fierce competitors I ever scouted.”

Ryan pitched Chipola to the Junior College World Series title in June 2007, throwing another complete game, striking out eight and allowing only five hits to New Mexico, ranked the top-hitting junior college team in the nation. New Mexico coach Ray Birmingham said afterward, “We have nothing to be ashamed of. The difference tonight was Ryan Chaffee.”

Chaffee was drafted that month by the Atlanta Braves in the 43rd round, but chose to return to Chipola, which is Kotch's alma mater.

Kotchman describes Chaffee as a cross between John Lackey, “El Duque” Orlando Hernandez, and Mark Fidrych. Ryan throws from three arm slots — three-quarters, sidearm and even submarine. His fastball velocity is high 80s to mid 90s with late movement. He also features an above average curve and slider; the curve is harder than the slider, which is rare. Ryan will throw the curve from all three slots. He also has an average changeup.

Chaffee was scheduled to pitch last summer at Rookie-A Tempe and then report to Advanced Rookie-A Orem, but never made it there due to the foot injury, which eventually required corrective surgery. Ryan should be ready to go in spring training, with an assignment to Low-A Cedar Rapids a definite possibility, and perhaps Rancho Cucamonga by late 2009. A 1-2 tandem of Chaffee and Will Smith (see below) would make the Kernels a formidable team in the Midwest League next year.


Nick Adenhart

5. Nick Adenhart RHP
Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'3" 185 lbs. DOB: 8/24/1986
Salt Lake (Triple-A): 9-13 5.76 ERA, 110:75 K:BB,
AVG/OBP/SLG: .306/.386/.460, 1.71 WHIP (145.1 IP)
Anaheim (A.L.): 1-0 9.00 ERA, 4:13 K:BB,
AVG/OBP/SLG: .360/.480/.482, 2.58 WHIP (12.0 IP)
Click Here to watch a video clip

2008 saw Nick Adenhart make his major league debut in May after the Angels lost starters John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar to injury. Before the callup, his ERA was 0.87. After he returned to Triple-A Salt Lake, his ERA was 7.24.

It was clearly too soon for Adenhart's promotion, the equivalent of dropping a novice swimmer in the deep end of the pool. I doubt anyone thought Nick was ready for a big-league job; it was more to introduce him to the much faster and more intense pace of a major league contest. But it seems that the three-game stint damaged his confidence, as he struggled for the balance of the year to find any consistency.

I wrote in last year's review that while at Double-A Arkansas Nick was starting to fall behind in pitch counts. Facing far more experienced and patient hitters in Triple-A, the problem only got worse. Adenhart had command problems with his fastball, and any pitcher who can't establish his fastball is going to be in trouble real quick, which is why he'd fall behind in pitch counts.

But it's also important to remember that Nick was one of the youngest pitchers in Triple-A, turning 22 on August 24. He's nine months younger than Rookie-A Orem pitcher Jayson Miller, who was named the Pioneer League's pitcher of the year. Most prospects at Nick's age are two or three levels lower than Triple-A.

When he's right, Nick's repertoire includes a mid-90s fastball, average curveball and above average changeup. Prior to his big-league stint, he had an unflappable, almost detached demeanor on the mound. Like many young pitchers, he'll struggle with mechanical consistency, which should go away with maturity and experience. One reason why his ERA was so inflated is that he was left in while struggling to learn how to pitch out of trouble — which, so far, he hasn't.

But Adenhart's future remains bright. The Angels as of this writing are looking for a starting pitcher to replace free agent Jon Garland. Nick is in the mix, but it's more likely he'll return to Triple-A in 2009 for more experience. 2010 or even 2011 seem a more realistic timeline for him to establish himself in the Angels' starting rotation.


Hank Conger

4. Hank Conger C
Bats: Both Throws: Right 6'0" 205 lbs. DOB: 1/29/1988
Rancho Cucamonga (Low-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .303/.333/.517 (318 TPA)
Click Here to watch a video clip

Hank's career nearly derailed in spring training when he was diagnosed with a small tear in the labrum of his throwing shoulder. Conger and the Angels chose to rehab it through therapy instead of surgery, keeping him in extended spring training until the end of May, when he reported to Rancho Cucamonga. Hank was limited to DH until June 13, caught one game, then bruised his left thumb warming up a pitcher. He had to wait until July 28 to appear behind the plate in another game situation. Conger appeared in 73 games for the Quakes, but caught in only in only 10 games, and never two games in a row. He's currently at the Angels' Dominican academy to start catching again in a controlled environment.

What Conger does to a ball with a bat is brutal. His swings can be violent when he's trying to hit a homer, which rarely works for any hitter. As I wrote last year, his swing tends to get long at times when he tries to lift the ball with an uppercut. Hank needs to trust his natural strength and drive the ball by levelling his swing. For a power hitter, though, his strikeout rate with Rancho was once every 5.3 at-bats, quite acceptable.

A switch-hitter, Conger continues to be more successful against right-handed pitchers than southpaws. This was a trend I reported last year; in 2008 his AVG/OBP/SLG against righties was .317/.348/.539, while against lefties it was .250/.282/.438. Like most catchers, Hank has lower than average speed, but was involved in fall instructional league drills to improve his running mechanics which might shave a few tenths of a second off his basepath time.

The health of Conger's shoulder will continue to be a question mark over the future of his career, at least until he demonstrates he can catch three or four games a week. Because of his physique, the only other logical defensive position for him would be first base, where Kendry Morales and buddy Mark Trumbo are ahead of him. He'll probably be given every opportunity in spring training to make the Double-A Arkansas roster; he joined the Travs for their September playoff run and led the Texas League post-season with 13 RBI. Hank will turn 21 in January, so there's still plenty of time to be patient and allow his catching skills to mature before pushing him onto a major league stage.


Mark Trumbo

3. Mark Trumbo 1B
Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'4" 220 lbs. DOB: 1/16/1986
Rancho Cucamonga (High-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .283/.329/.553 (438 TPA)
Arkansas (Double-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .276/.311/.496 (132 TPA)
Click Here to watch a video clip

Mark Trumbo finally emerged as the power hitter envisioned by the Angels when they signed him as an 18-year old in 2004. Trumbo repeated Low-A Cedar Rapids in 2007 after a disappointing 2006, but it was this year at High-A Rancho Cucamonga that he finally blossomed. Mark hit 26 homers in 103 games for the Quakes, then was promoted to Double-A Arkansas on July 28 and added six more for good measure.

Beyond the power numbers, of greater importance is that he's becoming more thoughtful as a hitter. He's starting to use the entire field to drive the ball. Cal League stats break down homers only by left, center or right field, so breaking down his 26 homers I can tell you that 15 were to LF, six to CF and five to RF. Texas League stats are a bit more specific; breaking down his six Double-A dingers, two were to LF, two were to left-center field, and two were to right field.

Trumbo's strikeout rate at Rancho was excellent for a power hitter. With the Quakes, Mark struck out once every 6.1 AB; once promoted to the Travelers, his K rate worsened to once every 4.2 AB, but that can probably be explained in part by his adjusting to a new league.

Mark adjusted his mechanics and his plate approach in 2008. He's improved his off-speed pitch recognition, and narrowed his stance. This allows him to keep the bat under the ball, creating more backspin and reducing ground balls. Mechanically, he still has little mobility below the hips in his swing, generating his power with his hands, arms and upper torso.

He's never taken many walks in his career, and 2008 was no exception. Mark had only 33 walks this year between the two levels. Statheads fret about walks, but the Angels' “Contactball” philosophy stresses putting the ball in play if you get a good pitch to hit.

Trumbo played in only 32 games with the Travs this year, which is his likely starting point for 2009. One thing that's important to remember when looking at Arkansas stats is that Dickey-Stephens Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the Texas League, so you really need to look at his home/road splits. When we do, we find:

Home AVG/OBP/SLG: .209/.225/.358 (71 TPA)
Away AVG/OBP/SLG: .357/.410/.661 (61 TPA)

Hmmm ... A small sample, but nonetheless quite revealing. We saw the same radical split in 2007 when I wrote about Sean Rodriguez, and he wound up hitting 21 homers in 66 games for Triple-A Salt Lake this year. So it really helps to know the parks these guys play in and evaluate for context, which few analysts ever do.

Trumbo finished the year in the Arizona Fall League, where his AVG/OBP/SLG through November 15 were .285/.306/.350. As usual, he had few walks and a strikeout rate close to his career average.

As mentioned in the introduction, I take into consideration the Angels' plans for a player. The Angels traded Casey Kotchman in July for Mark Teixeira, who is now a free agent. That means the Angels have much less depth at first base than a few months ago. Unless Teixeira resigns or the Angels acquire another first baseman, that job will be Kendry Morales' to lose in spring training. It also means that Trumbo becomes the heir apparent, but he probably needs a good two years of minor league experience (at Triple-A in particular) before he's ready to challenge for the major league first base job. He's not all that mobile defensively, but his power bat will keep him in the lineup. If he can reduce the strikeouts like he did at Rancho, the paucity of walks will be less of a concern, but more walks will be a plus as it will demonstrate further maturity at the plate.


Jordan Walden

2. Jordan Walden RHP
Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'5" 220 lbs. DOB: 11/16/1987
Cedar Rapids (Low-A): 4-6 2.18 ERA, 91:32 K:BB,
AVG/OBP/SLG: .207/.272/.269, 1.04 WHIP (107.1 IP)
Rancho Cucamonga (High-A): 5-2 4.04 ERA, 50:24 K:BB,
AVG/OBP/SLG: .226/.319/.344, 1.35 WHIP (49.0 IP)
Click Here to watch a video clip

Jordan Walden's 2008 season progressed pretty much as anticipated. After 18 starts with Low-A Cedar Rapids, he was promoted in mid-July to High-A Rancho Cucamonga where he made nine more starts to finish the season.

The Kernels' light offense kept Jordan from notching more wins, but you can't quibble with a 2.18 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 7.6 K/9 IP. With the Quakes, Walden's 4.04 ERA was a disappointment, but look past that to his 9.2 K/9 IP. His numbers were somewhat inflated by two miserable starts, July 25 at Visalia and July 30 at San Jose. At Visalia, he gave up ten runs (four earned) in three innings, allowing three homers. At San Jose, he gave up six runs in 4 2/3 innings including a homer. But in his final six starts, his ERA was 3.06 with no homers allowed.

Mechanical consistency was a bit of an issue during his amateur days at Grayson Community College, and it's a problem that still plagues him now and then. In the video clip above filmed at Lake Elsinore on August 17, Walden was flying open with his lead shoulder, resulting in wildness. Compare that video clip with one I shot in September 2007 at fall instructional league; it appears that his three-quarters arm slot has dropped just a tad from a year ago. Some of that may simply be late-season fatigue, quite typical for younger players who tend to hit the wall in August as they've never played this long before. When he's right, though, Walden's velocity is consistently in the low to mid-90s, and has been clocked as high as 100 MPH.

Walden's repertoire consists of his fastball, slider and a developing changeup. The slider gets "slurvy" at times. When not striking out batters, he usually gets ground outs. With Cedar Rapids, he gave up only three homers and had an outstanding GO/AO ratio of 2.31. Those numbers weren't quite as good in the Cal League, which is a much more hitter-friendly league than the Midwest League. His GO/AO ratio with Rancho Cucamonga was a still impressive 1.74.

Jordan will probably begin 2009 where he left off, in the Quakes' rotation. At age 21, he'll still be one of the younger pitchers in the Cal League. He should see Double-A Arkansas before the year is over. Walden needs to eliminate the mechanical consistency issue, but that's usually resolved with experience and maturity. To be effective as a starter at the major league level, he'll need to improve his secondary pitches. I wrote a year ago that the Angels might introduce him to another secondary pitch such as a cut fastball once he reaches Double-A, and I still expect that to happen. That's what they did with John Lackey in 2001.


Will Smith

1. Will Smith LHP
Bats: Right Throws: Left 6'5" 215 lbs. DOB: 7/10/1989
Orem (Rookie-A): 8-2 3.08 ERA, 76:6 K:BB,
AVG/OBP/SLG: .253/.273/.381, 1.08 WHIP (73.0 IP)
Click Here to watch a video clip

A 19-year old seventh-round draft pick who didn't even merit a pre-draft review by Baseball America might seem an unusual choice for this year's #1 prospect title, but five years from now Will Smith might look like the steal of the young century.

Tom Kotchman recommended Smith after watching him pitch at Gulf Coast Community College. “Kotch” has a knack for finding amateur talent overlooked by other organizations. Will was drafted by Tampa Bay in the 40th round of the June 2007 draft out of Northgate High School in Newnan, Georgia, but didn't sign, choosing junior college instead. Smith posted a 4.41 ERA with the Commodores in 2008, but he had a 105:20 SO:BB ratio in 87 2/3 innings.

Given three months to work with Orem's pitching coach Zeke Zimmerman, Smith blossomed into the most dominant lefty in the Pioneer League. That 76:6 SO:BB ratio is not a typo; he really only walked six batters in 73 innings. Zimmerman has been a coach in the Angels' system for 16 years, and Kotchman's sidekick much of that time. Kotch knows when he sees a raw talent that he can hand over that pitcher to an experienced coach who can begin to mold the player into a major league prospect.

Smith's Gulf Coast coach Mike Kandler praised Smith's maturity and knowledge, and that assessment is echoed by observers in the Angels organization. As with all teenage pitchers, repeating his mechanics are a concern, but that usually goes away with experience and maturity. He's eager to learn, which not all teenagers are willing to do.

Will isn't in Randy Johnson territory with his velocity, but more importantly he already understands to vary the speed of his fastball from pitch to pitch. His velocity tops out in the low 90s but there's room to grow, which is plenty coming from a 6'5" lefty with dominant control. His plus curve baffles hitters at this level, and he's developing a changeup to complete the repertoire. When he falls behind in pitch counts, Ball Three is rarely followed by Ball Four. He's not afraid to pitch inside and has the moxie to challenge hitters.

Because of his height, he'll have a relatively slow delivery so runners may get a jump on Will until he refines that part of his game. 9 of 12 runners were successful in steal attempts against him.

Class-A Cedar Rapids is the likely place for Smith to begin 2009. The Midwest League is a pitcher's league, so he should continue to post dominant numbers. Will is an early candidate for the 2009 Midwest League All-Star Game, and he'll probably get a taste of High-A Rancho Cucamonga before the year is over.

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Prior FutureAngels.com Top 10 Prospects Reports:

ABBREVIATIONS:
AB — At-Bats
AVG — Batting Average
BB — Walks
ERA — Earned Run Average
GO/AO — Ground Outs to All Outs Ratio
IP — Innings Pitched
K — Strikeouts
K:BB Ratio — Strikeouts to Walks
AVG — Opponents' Batting Average
OBP — On-Base Percentage
OPS — OBP + SLG
RISP — Runners in Scoring Position
SLG — Slugging Percentage
TPA — Total Plate Appearances
WHIP — (Walks + Hits)/(Innings Pitched)