2009 FutureAngels.com Top 10 Prospects
November 24, 2009
This article is copyright © 2009 Stephen C. Smith DBA FutureAngels.com. It may not be reprinted elsewhere without the prior expressed written permission of the author. To obtain permission, e-mail Stephen at home@futureangels.com.
|
2009 was a year to remember, and not all for good reasons.
We lost Nick Adenhart in April. The loss still hurts deeply. Those of us who knew him find it hard to heal.
Early injuries at the major league level tumbled like dominoes throughout the organization. The Angels in April lost John Lackey, Ervin Santana, and Dustin Moseley. Kelvim Escobar was already on the disabled list. Then we lost Nick.
The domino effect promoted minor league pitchers throughout the system, some perhaps before having earned it, or before obtaining the experience the Angels wanted them to have.
Matt Palmer, a six-year minor league free agent with the Giants, was signed last winter by the Angels and found himself in the starting rotation in late April. Although he didn't dominate, he held his own long enough for Lackey and Santana to return.
Triple-A Salt Lake starters Anthony Ortega, Sean O'Sullivan and Trevor Bell also found themselves rushed to the big leagues before they were ready. Ortega wound up hurt in early May and missed the rest of the season.
Trevor Reckling had three starts at High-A Rancho Cucamonga and then moved up to Double-A Arkansas for an April 26 start, after Sean O'Sullivan was promoted to Salt Lake. Trevor never looked back, and at age 20 has assumed Adenhart's laurel as the Angels' top pitching prospect. Reckling was named after the season as the Angels' minor league pitcher of the year.
A year ago, Trevor Bell was a few months removed from the Angels doghouse for a discipinary issue. He was briefly demoted to Low-A Cedar Rapids, then returned to High-A Rancho Cucamonga where he finished the season as an effective reliever. Bell began 2009 in the Double-A Arkansas starting rotation, where he posted a 2.23 ERA in eleven starts, moved up to Triple-A Salt Lake for eleven more starts, and found himself in the majors making his first start on August 12.
June saw the Angels select two players in the first round of the amateur draft, and three more “sandwich” picks between the first and second rounds. The Angels received these additional selections as compensation for free agents who departed last winter.
The Angels signed all five, and their second round pick, injecting a lot of young talent into the system's lower levels.
The Angels acquired pitcher Scott Kazmir on August 29, sending infielder Sean Rodriguez, Arkansas pitcher Alex Torres and Rancho Cucamonga third baseman Matt Sweeney to Tampa Bay. Rodriguez may be the Rays' starting second baseman in 2010. Torres will probably be ranked as one of Tampa's top pitching prospects. Sweeney missed all of 2008 with a leg injury, and two months this summer with the Quakes due to a hip injury.
It had been a long time since the Angels bundled up prospects for a veteran in a mid-season deal. The transaction dealt from strength, although all three players may succeed one day in the major leagues. It showed the true depth of the Angels' farm system that they could make such a trade and not harm their future.
So now it's on to 2010, and we wrap up 2009 by judging who were the best prospects in the system at year's end.
Let's go over the basic eligibility rules for the FutureAngels.com Top 10 Prospects list.
I'm often asked, why only ten? Why not 20 or 30 or more?
The answer is simple. The further down you go, the more meaningless it becomes.
Baseball America determined from a study years ago that only one of ten minor leaguers ever makes it to the big leagues for at least one game. Of those, only one of four will play five years in the majors.
Combine those two numbers, and it means that only one in forty minor leaguers will become a big-league regular. In a typical year, an organization might have 200 minor leaguers under contract. Applying the 1 in 40 rule, it means that on the average only five of them will emerge as big-league regulars. Applying the 1 in 10 rule, it means that at best 20 of them will even make it to the majors for one game.
So what's the point of a long list if only five will be big-league regulars?
The Baseball America Prospect Handbook does a Top 30 list for each organization, but their analysts admit privately that once you get past 20, arguing the difference between the rankings is meaningless. So I'd rather concentrate on giving you in-depth analysis of the ten guys I think you should watch, rather than a long list of names you can look up yourself and figure out pretty quickly they're not going to be major-league regulars.
As with Baseball America, players are eligible for my list so long as they don't have 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the majors. That's why Sean O'Sullivan isn't on the list. He pitched 51 2/3 innings in 2009. Brandon Wood exceeded 130 career major league at-bats in 2008, even though some fan lists still have him as a prospect.
Let's also restate my definition of “Top 10”. The Top 10 what? The Top 10 talent? The first ten to make it to the big leagues? The ten players the Angels care about the most?
For me, it's a combination of all those factors. Baseball America tends to look at a player's “ceiling”, i.e. how much talent potential he has. I look at that but also take into consideration the parent club's needs. For example, I might give slightly less weight to a starting pitcher prospect if the parent club is deep in starters. I give that more importance than would Baseball America, because I'm considering how he fits into the Angels' plans, short-range or long-range. BA gives more weight to the player's likelihood to star in the big leagues, somewhere, sometime.
Sure, I look at statistics, but the biggest flaw in statistically-obsessed prospect reviews is that they lack context. Triple-A Salt Lake, for example, is a very hitter-friendly park. But you can't just look at a Bees player's home-road splits, because there are other super-friendly parks in the league. So I'll go one step beyond and tell you how that player did in the hitter-friendly parks versus the neutral or pitcher-friendly parks.
“Stathead” analyses also overlook basic context such as whether a player had an injury or was trying to change his mechanics or learn a new pitch. I go watch these players myself and talk to their coaches, so I can add some insight you might not get elsewhere. I also post videos of these players, so you can watch them and decide for yourself.
Just because someone shows up on this list, it doesn't mean he's a sure-fire future major league star. It's just a snapshot of the organization at one point in time.
If you're a player or a loved one, don't take it personally if you're not on the list. In a typical season, the Angels will have around 200 minor leaguers under contract. That means 190 players don't get mentioned.
So with all those qualifiers, let's tick off 190 ballplayers and their families . . .
 Alexi Amarista |
10. Alexi Amarista 2B
Bats: Left Throws: Right 5'8" 150 lbs. DOB: 4/6/1989
Cedar Rapids (Low-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .319/.390/.468 (557 TPA)
Click Here to watch a video clip
Charitably listed at 5'8" in official records, Cedar Rapids' Alexi Amarista won the Midwest League batting average title in 2009 with a .319 mark. (The MWL is generally considered to be a pitcher-friendly league.) Despite his diminutive stature, Amarista was among the league's top five leaders in hits (152), doubles (39), triples (10) and sacrifices (18). The Angels named him after the season as their minor league offense Player of the Year.
The manager of another Midwest League team described Amarista as a “pest,” someone whose game skills were advanced for his level and age. He said Alexi reminded him of Hainley Statia, an infielder with Arkansas this year. Another coach said Amarista might be 5'4" but he plays like 6'4".
Amarista consistently squares up the ball with his bat, meaning that regardless of the pitch location he can be level with his swing and strike the ball squarely. Opposing outfielders who played him in due to his height played him deeper later in the season, realizing he could drive the ball.
In 2008, Amarista's first season in the United States, he demonstrated his versatility at Rookie-A Tempe by playing second base and all three outfield positions; twelve of his last thirteen games were in center field, with one game at second base. With the Kernels in 2009, Alexi was strictly a second baseman.
There are a few chinks in his armor. One is a vulnerability to left-handed pitchers. Against lefties this year, his AVG/OBP/SLG were .245/.323/.309; against righties they were .341/.410/.515. Last year at Tempe, he hit .289 against southpaws, .344 against righties.
Another problem was his situational hitting with runners in scoring position. His batting average with the bases empty was .317, but with runners in scoring position it dropped to .250, and his RISP average with two outs was only .143 (7 for 49). Amarista tended to be too aggressive in these situations with balls outside of his zone.
Amarista also seems to like the home cooking; although Veterans Memorial Stadium plays fairly neutral, Alexi hit much better in Cedar Rapids (.379/.453/.560) than on the road (.261/.328/.380).
Although he led the league in sacrifices, to make him a true leadoff hitter he needs to successfully bunt for base hits, which is another skill to polish. He stole 38 bases but was caught 20 times; his speed is above-average, not in the Chone Figgins class but good enough to bat leadoff if he can cut down on mistakes.
For all these nitpicks, the important thing to remember is that he was only 20 years old this year. Other than perhaps the vulnerability to left-handed pitching, there's nothing that can't be fixed with experience. He could evolve into a super-utility player similar to Figgins, or could be more. His height would seem to limit him to a middle-infield role, meaning he might one day supplant Howie Kendrick, but that day is years in the future, if ever.
 Randal Grichuk (Photo courtesy Bill Mitchell, Blue Night Productions) |
9. Randal Grichuk OF
Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'1" 195 lbs. DOB: 8/13/1991
Tempe (Rookie-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .322/.352/.551 (256 TPA)
Click Here to watch a video clip on MLB.com
Randal Grichuk was the first of two outfielder prospects selected by the Angels in the June 2009 draft, #24 overall in the first round. Mike Trout was selected #25.
MLB Network described Grichuk's selection as a "surprising call." Baseball America in its 2009 Draft Preview edition slotted Randal as a second-round pick, noting he'd been a power hitter since the 2004 Little League World Series. “He doesn't have the prettiest righthanded stroke, but his strong hands and bat speed should allow him to hit for a solid average once he adjusts his pull-oriented approach.” BA described him as a “below-average runner with a fringe arm” but praised his work ethic and passion for the game. They concluded he projects as a left fielder.
When he started playing for Tempe, though, Grichuk was in center field, not left. He eventually yielded that assignment to Trout, moving to left field, although he also saw some action in right. Randal needs improvement on his jump and route to the ball, but that's not unusual for a player of his age. He gets more length on his throws than Trout, but uses his legs less.
Like all young power hitters, Grichuk can kill a fastball. His swing is not overly aggressive, it's consistent, and one coach said he wasn't trying to pull the ball as BA observed. He drove the ball to all fields. But his strikeout-to-walk ratio was 7.1:1 (64:9), an early red flag. Randal sat on fastballs but had trouble adjusting to off-speed pitches — again, not unusual for a hitter coming out of high school. His mechanics were consistent; the problem was pitch recognition.
There was no indication that Randal had problems with right-handed versus left-handed pitchers. His OPS (on-base percentage + slugging percentage) against righties was .905 (199 AB), .889 (37 AB) against lefties. His best OPS numbers were with runners on base — 1.091 with runners in scoring position, and 1.142 with RISP and two outs.
Grichuk attempted ten stolen bases, and was successful only six times. He needs to be indoctrinated in the Angels' aggressive baserunning philosophy, such as going from first to third on a single or advancing on a wild pitch/passed ball. His baserunning speed is average; he takes a few steps to get going, but once he does his speed is not a concern.
The cover of the 1996 Angels Media Guide featured Garret Anderson, Jim Edmonds and Tim Salmon. One day we might see a similar photo with Grichuk, Trout and Peter Bourjos. Focusing on 2010, Grichuk could start the season with Low-A Cedar Rapids, although if he still shows pitch recognition problems next March he could be held back in extended spring training and might even go to Rookie-A Orem in June. It's important to remember that Grichuk and Trout are both 18 — Randal six days younger than Mike — so their one-way ticket to Anaheim won't be punched for many years. They need time to learn and experiment.
 Peter Bourjos |
8. Peter Bourjos OF
Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'1" 180 lbs. DOB: 3/31/1987
Arkansas (Double-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .281/.354/.423 (504 TPA)
Click Here to watch a video clip
For the third straight season, a mid-season injury befell Peter Bourjos. In 2007, he missed two months with Cedar Rapids due to a broken finger. In 2008, he missed two weeks after hyperextending his left elbow, an injury that persisted through the season. In 2009, Pete sprained his left wrist during batting practice on June 4. He missed three weeks and played for the rest of the year with a torn ligament, earning respect throughout the organization. The injury was responsible for his average dropping from .316 at the time of the injury to .281 at season's end.
Despite the injury, Bourjos played for the North Division in the Texas League's All-Star Game, and after the season was named the Angels' minor league Defensive Player of the Year. He led league outfielders with a .997 fielding percentage, had seven assists and participated in five double plays, the latter tying for the league lead.
Bourjos led the league in triples with 14, and was fifth in stolen bases with 32. (He was 32 for 44.) Pete was 50 for 60 last year with Rancho Cucamonga; the organization believes he's capable of more but he still shows a little hesitancy at times.
As with all leadoff hitters, Bourjos needs to maximize his on-base percentage and he significantly improved that aspect of his game in 2009. He drew only 19 walks in 2008, but increased the number to 49 in 2009 although he played in eleven fewer games. He also improved his contact rate, striking out once every 5.7 at-bats, up from 5.3 last year.
A natural right-handed hitter, many speedy leadoff types are encouraged to switch-hit, but that doesn't seem to be in the cards for Pete, who tried it briefly in high school without success.
Bourjos doesn't have a lot of power but should flourish next year in Triple-A Salt Lake's expansive ballpark; watch for him to challenge Chone Figgins' record 18 triples with Salt Lake in 2002. He's widely considered to be the eventual successor to Torii Hunter in center field for the Angels, but Torii doesn't seem inclined to give up that job for quite a while. Pete might find himself moved to a corner outfield job once he reaches the majors until Hunter moves on.
 Mark Trumbo |
7. Mark Trumbo 1B-OF
Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'4" 220 lbs. DOB: 1/16/1986
Arkansas (Double-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .291/.333/.452 (581 TPA)
Click Here to watch a video clip
It was a tale of two seasons for Mark Trumbo.
There was every reason to think Mark would pick up where he left off in 2008, when he hit 32 homers between Rancho Cucamonga (26) and Arkansas (6).
But Mark got off to a slow start, batting only .205 in April with just two homers. His offense picked up in June, and at the All-Star break his AVG/OBP/SLG were .263/.308/.405. He joined several Travelers teammates on Texas League's North Division All-Star team, then went on to post a far more respectable .320/.361/502 in the second half.
For any Travs player, it's important to look at home/road splits because Dickey-Stephens Park is perhaps the most pitcher-friendly park in the league. For all of 2009, Mark's home/road splits were:
Home AVG/OBP/SLG: .287/.338/.443
Road AVG/OBL/SLG: .294/.329/.460
If we look at post-All-Star break, his splits were:
Home AVG/OBP/SLG: .336/.380/.484
Road AVG/OBL/SLG: .305/.348/.519
... so his power numbers were better away from DSP, which is fairly typical.
With the exception of 2008 with the Quakes, historically Trumbo gets off to a slow start each year. This time, he let the frustration of the early slump get to him, but eventually learned not to let bad at-bats affect him. Mark also shortened his swing, trusting his natural power. Last year he started to use all the field, and that trend continued in 2009.
As with many power hitters, Trumbo tends to strike out a lot, although in his career he's been trending towards making more contact. In 2006-2008 his at-bat to strikeout ratios were 4.3, 4.8, and 5.5. In 2009, he struck out once every 5.3 at-bats, but in the second half the rate was 5.6. Mark has never been one to take a lot of walks, and his 37 passes this year were pretty typical for his career.
Trumbo often gets knocked for a lack of mobility at first base, but the Angels intend to give him more time playing the outfield. He played ten games in right field for the Travs in August-September. Mark showed a power arm, didn't commit an error and even got an assist on a double play. The increased outfield time in 2010 will give him more experience with his jumps and routes.
With Kendry Morales firmly entrenched at first base, moving Trumbo to right field is an elegant solution that would get his bat in the lineup in Anaheim, and provide the Angels with some corner outfield power depth currently lacking at upper levels. The Pacific Coast League is a hitter-friendly league, so his offense numbers should pick up in 2010, and an Anaheim audition before season's end is within reason.
 Jordan Walden |
6. Jordan Walden RHP
Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'5" 240 lbs. DOB: 11/16/1987
Arkansas (Double-A): 1-5 5.25 ERA, 57:29 K:BB,
AVG/OBP/SLG: .301/.382/.414, 1.68 WHIP (60.0 IP)
Click Here to watch a video clip
2009 was a lost cause for Jordan Walden, who twice went on the disabled list with a strained forearm — once after throwing seven shutout innings on April 21, and for good two batters into his July 13 start when he injured himself again. Jordan was fine coming out of spring training, so what initiated the injury remains a mystery. It might have been mechanical, conditioning, or a combination of both.
There really isn't much point in analyzing what happened this year, because this wasn't the real Walden. When right, his velocity is consistently in the low to mid-90s, and he's been clocked as high as 100 MPH, but his velocity was down and his numbers were unimpressive across the board.
When he's right, Walden's repertoire consists of a fastball, slider and a developing changeup. The slider gets "slurvy" at times. In past seasons, he rarely gave up home runs; in 2009, he gave up four in 60 innings, which is still plenty impressive, but he was no longer recording a lot of ground outs. His groundout-to-all outs (GO/AO) ratio at Cedar Rapids in 2008 was 2.31, and then at Rancho Cucamonga 1.74. With the Travs in 2009, it was 0.98.
It seems logical that Walden will return to Arkansas next April and give it another try. His arm is fine now, but he'll need to clean up the mechanical problems that led to the injury. He turned 22 this month, so he still have plenty of time to polish his skills for the big leagues. Once the mechanical issues are resolved, he should take off.
 Mike Trout (Photo courtesy Bill Mitchell, Blue Night Productions) |
5. Mike Trout OF
Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'1" 200 lbs. DOB: 8/7/1991
Tempe (Rookie-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .360/.418/.506 (187 TPA)
Cedar Rapids (Low-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .267/.421/.267 (20 TPA)
Click Here to watch a video clip on MLB.com
Mike Trout was the second of two outfielder prospects selected by the Angels in the June 2009 draft, #25 overall in the first round. Randal Grichuk, who was also selected by the Angels in the first round one pick ahead of Trout (#24 overall), has more raw power but Trout is the more polished talent at this point.
Trout was profiled in a full-page article by Baseball America in its 2009 Draft Preview edition. BA's Nathan Rode wrote, “Trout has risen to the top of the high school draft class thanks to his premium blend of speed, athleticism and makeup. Scouts regard him as a legitimate center fielder and love the way he plays the game.”
A middle infielder early in high school, Trout also pitched but moved to the outfield his senior year. He dabbled with switch-hitting, a skill the Angels might encourage down the line to exploit his plus speed.
His speed slots Trout for now as a center fielder, but his arm could push him to a corner position in the majors. Mike needs to improve his throwing mechanics, which degraded somewhat by the end of the season. He short-arms the ball like an infielder, so he doesn't get much extension on his throws. His jump on the ball and routes to the ball are fine, so if he can fix his throwing mechanics then he can be a major league center fielder.
One observer described Trout's swing as "funky," a slightly inside-out swing that will need tinkering. He puts the ball in play, striking out once every 5.8 at-bats. He took only 18 walks in 187 plate appearances; to exploit his speed, he'll need to be more selective, but that's true of pretty much every hitter in rookie ball. The inside-out swing helps Mike drive the ball to right-center, and he drives the ball well to both gaps. Although he has power, he probably won't be a true power hitter; if he can learn to bunt for hits, it may evolve him into a leadoff hitter role. Trout grounded into only two double plays in the 39 games he played at Tempe.
The BA article noted that Trout tended to put a lot of pressure on himself earlier in high school, but learned to “step it up a bit.” After Tempe's season ended, Mike was promoted to Cedar Rapids for the playoffs but made only one appearance in five post-season games, and that was as a pinch-runner. That left me wondering if the Angels didn't want to push him too much as he just turned 18 on August 7.
Although they bat from different sides of the plate and their hitting mechanics differ, if you want to look at end result you might compare Trout to a young Johnny Damon — someone with the speed to lead off, gap power, occasional home run power, but not a very good arm defensively. Damon began his career with the Royals in center field but eventually moved to left. The day might come when you see Trout in right field, Peter Bourjos in center, and Grichuk in left. For now, though, Trout is likely to open 2010 in center field for the Kernels.
 Hank Conger |
4. Hank Conger C
Bats: Both Throws: Right 6'1" 220 lbs. DOB: 1/29/1988
Arkansas (Double-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .295/.369/.424 (524 TPA)
Click Here to watch a video clip
Hank Conger's mission in 2009 was to stay healthy for a full year. If that was his goal, then mission accomplished.
Conger's 2006 rookie season was cut short by a broken hamate bone in his right wrist. In 2007, he pulled a hamstring and injured his lower back. In spring training 2008, he was diagnosed with a small tear in the labrum of his throwing shoulder, and caught only ten games for Rancho Cucamonga while DH'ing the rest of the time.
In 2½ seasons, Conger caught in 91 games. He had a lot of catching development time to make up. With the Double-A Arkansas Travelers this year he had to not only stay in the lineup but also show he could catch several games in a row.
Through April and early May, Hank never caught more than two consecutive games, but the Angels stretched him out to the point where he caught in nine straight in late July (with some off days sprinkled in). By season's end, he was eased back, catching no more than four games straight.
The Angels sent Conger to the Arizona Fall League for more work, but he was shut down early to assure he wasn't pushed too hard. Hank caught in 87 games for Arkansas, and 13 more for the AFL's Mesa Solar Sox, leading the team in innings caught with 114.
Conger blocked the ball well this year, allowing only three passed balls. He committed 14 errors, two of them for catcher's interference, one for a missed catch, the remaining 11 for bad throws. Hank was only 30% successful (33 for 110) in throwing out base runners, but that's a potentially misleading statistic as it also depends on the ability of pitchers to hold on a runner. The important thing is that his throwing errors are mechanical, not physical, so now it's a matter of polishing his skills.
Hank's bat, of course, is what everyone is waiting to see. As I wrote last year, what he does to a ball with a bat is brutal. One pleasant trend that continues to emerge is his ability to make contact. His strikeout rate the last three years was once every 6.0 at-bats at Cedar Rapids, 5.3 at Rancho Cucamonga and 6.7 with Arkansas; for a power hitter, those are more than acceptable.
With any Travs hitter, it's always important to look at home/road splits because Dickey-Stephens Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the Texas League. For Conger, his AVG/OBP/SLG at home were .303/.371/.459 while on the road they were .288/.366/.392, a reversal of the usual pattern where hitters do better away from DSP. Although his power numbers weren't quite what we'd want, it's important to remember he's only 21 in a league where most players are at least 3-5 years older than him. A positive sign was his walk rate, drawing 55 to his 68 strikeouts.
A switch-hitter, Conger was more successful against left-handed pitchers (.840 OPS) than right-handed pitchers (.774 OPS). His swing tends to be more violent from the left side (check out the above video clip); it can be toned down through experience and maturity.
Anyone who follows the Angels knows manager Mike Scioscia sets very high defensive standards for his catchers, so before Conger sees any big league time he's going to need a lot more games in the minors. If the club's current catching depth remains the same, Bobby Wilson returns to Triple-A Salt Lake in 2010 which pushes Conger back to Double-A Arkansas. Again, Hank was only 21 years old; Rookie-A Orem's catcher Carlos Ramirez is just two months younger. If he'd gone on to college, 2010 would have been his senior year and he might not be coming out in the draft until June. So there's plenty time to let Conger repeat a level and make up for lost experience.
 Will Smith |
3. Will Smith LHP
Bats: Right Throws: Left 6'5" 215 lbs. DOB: 7/10/1989
Cedar Rapids (Low-A): 10-5 3.76 ERA, 95:24 K:BB,
AVG/OBP/SLG: .249/.287/.387, 1.16 WHIP (115.0 IP)
Click Here to watch a video clip
Will Smith went through some literal growing pains in 2009, as two injuries prevented him from pitching full-throttle in his first full season. Smith suffered a hamstring pull in his second start on April 18 and missed a month. He was disabled again on July 12 with a lower back injury and missed another month. Both injuries were conditioning issues quite typical of young ballplayers in their first full year, and shouldn't be taken as potentially chronic problems.
When he was right, Smith was one of the more dominant pitchers in the Midwest League. You need only look at his two post-season starts. On September 9 at Peoria, he allowed two runs on five hits in seven innings with seven strikeouts and one walk. On September 14 at home against Burlington, he gave up two runs on three hits in eight innings with nine strikeouts and five walks. He lost that game 2-1 on a two-run homer in the first inning, hit off his changeup which he told the press was his "third best pitch."
Smith's approach is to change speeds, work quickly and throw strikes. Last year at Orem, he had a mind-boggling strikeout-to-walk ratio of 12.7:1 (76:6). Injuries are perhaps to blame for reducing that ratio to a more human 3.9:1, but that's still plenty impressive for a 20-year old in the Midwest League.
Will has command of three pitches — fastball, breaking ball, and changeup. He's not afraid to pitch inside, a fear shared by many young pitchers who've faced only aluminum bats in amateur ball. None of his pitches are dominant, but it's his command and willingness to aggressively pitch inside that make him effective. He throttles the velocity on his fastball anywhere from mid-80s to low 90s. That's not the same thing as a changeup, which is a different grip. His breaking ball needs tightening, but that will come with experience. The changeup, as Will said, needs work but again that's not unusual for a 20-year old.
As Smith ages and improves his conditioning, I expect him to add a couple MPH to his velocity, but velocity isn't as important as location and movement. He understands how to pitch, and more importantly has the mentality of a big-game pitcher. He demonstrated that last year at Orem and this year with the Kernels.
A manager with another Midwest League team told me Smith was the one Kernels pitcher he didn't want to face. He sees Will as a potential #3-#4 major league starter. He said Smith hides the ball well so it leaves his hand late, giving batters little time to see the pitch. He agreed with my assessment that Smith is a big-game pitcher.
Although it can be a highly misleading stat, runners were only 6 for 14 in stealing bases off Smith. It's misleading because the catcher's throwing ability is also a factor. But it's a big improvement over the 9 for 12 bags stolen last year at Orem.
With the addition in the 2009 draft of Tyler Skaggs, Tyler Kehrer and Pat Corbin in the first two rounds, the Angels are now deep in young left-handed starting pitcher prospects. For now, Smith remains the most advanced lefty in the system other than Trevor Reckling. Rancho Cucamonga will be a challenge in 2010 as the California League is very hitter-friendly, but a healthy year should keep him on the radar for a job in Anaheim around 2012.
 Garrett Richards |
2. Garrett Richards RHP
Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'3" 210 lbs. DOB: 5/27/1988
Orem (Rookie-A): 3-1 1.53 ERA, 30:4 K:BB,
AVG/OBP/SLG: .278/.309/.323, 1.16 WHIP (35.1 IP)
Click Here to watch a video clip
Garrett Richards was chosen by the Angels with one of their three supplemental picks between the first and second rounds (#42 overall). A junior with the University of Oklahoma, Baseball America analyst Jim Callis described him as “electric but erratic.” Just before the draft, Callis wrote, “Richards never has harnessed his wicked stuff on anything approaching a consistent basis. He has trouble throwing strikes and flies open in his delivery, allowing hitters a good look at what's coming.”
Callis had good reason to question Richards. In three seasons with the Sooners, his ERA was 6.23 with 127 strikeouts and 69 walks in 125 2/3 innings. But he finished strong this year, with 11 strikeouts in his regular season finale, and 10 strikeouts in a complete game playoff victory.
Many pitchers struggle when they make the conversion from amateur to pro, primarily because they face hitters with wood bats instead of aluminum, but that didn't affect Richards. In 35 1/3 innings with Rookie-A Orem, he struck out 30, walked four, and didn't allow a homer in a hitter-happy league.
Garrett's velocity ranges from 90-97 MPH, sitting normally in the 93-95 MPH range. In one game against Missoula where he lost the release point on his four-seam fastball, Richards went to his two-seamer which one observer called “devastating.” The pitch doesn't lose much velocity and has great movement. He'll throw more changeups than curveballs or sliders, which is rare for a young power pitcher, and will use it against right-handed batters. His curve ball was described as "plus-plus" but very inconsistent; once it's harnessed, it will be another lethal weapon. Garrett also throws a slider that some mistake for a cutter because its velocity is 86-90 MPH.
Richards was promoted to Low-A Cedar Rapids, but came up with a tight shoulder during a bullpen session and was shut down. It was one of those speed bumps young pitchers encounter when learning how to maintain their bodies during the rigors of a professional baseball season, and shouldn't be a concern in the future. It's too bad, because a playoff rotation of Richards along with Will Smith, Ryan Chaffee and Tyler Chatwood might have taken the Kernels to a championship.
It's likely that Richards will return to Cedar Rapids to begin 2010, although he could move up quickly to Rancho Cucamonga with a strong first half. The Midwest League is a pitcher's league, so assuming he keeps his mechanics consistent he should be one of the dominant pitchers in the league next year. If he can harness his potential, he could be a big league star, but "if" has applied to many raw pitchers who never saw a day in the majors.
 Trevor Reckling |
1. Trevor Reckling LHP
Bats: Left Throws: Left 6'1" 195 lbs. DOB: 5/22/1989
Rancho Cucamonga (High-A): 1-2 0.95 ERA, 16:3 K:BB,
AVG/OBP/SLG: .138/.176/.246, 0.63 WHIP (19.0 IP)
Arkansas (Double-A): 8-7 2.93 ERA, 106:75 K:BB,
AVG/OBP/SLG: .244/.349/.333, 1.43 WHIP (135.1 IP)
Click Here to watch a video clip
Trevor Reckling just missed the 2008 Top 10 list, as I was a bit concerned whether his mechanics might betray him in the long run. Baseball America raised those concerns in October when Reckling was named #8 on their Texas League Top 20 Prospects list. “Questions about Reckling stem from his over-the-top delivery, which has a lot of moving parts and can get jerky, affecting his command. His mechanics do give him deception and a good downhill plane, but he has trouble repeating his delivery and loses his release point at times.”
Reckling generously issued walks this year at the rate of five free passes per nine innings, something he hadn't done before. The root cause was his overthrowing and inconsistent command, not uncommon with young pitchers. Considering he was promoted to Double-A a month short of his 20th birthday, we can excuse the walks as a symptom of growing pains for the Angels' 2009 minor league Pitcher of the Year.
Reckling began 2009 at High-A Rancho Cucamonga, where it was expected he'd spend most if not all of the season. As the string of pitching injuries at the parent club level dominoed through the system, Trevor found himself promoted to Arkansas after only three California League starts. His first Texas League start was April 26 in North Little Rock; he pitched six shutout innings, allowing only three hits.
By the All-Star break, Reckling had a 2.55 ERA in twelve starts, but he was starting to issue walks, a trend not seen at lower levels. That was a combination of mechanics, and facing more experienced and patient hitters. Double-A is where pitchers will start seeing a few batters who have played in the big leagues, and many are in their mid-20s if not older. Trevor was named to the Texas League All-Star Game, pitching a scoreless third inning. He went on to pitch for the United States in the July 12 Futures Game, giving up three runs on three hits in 2/3 of an inning in a game delayed four hours by rain.
Between the Quakes and Travelers, Reckling had already pitched 154 1/3 innings when he was invited to join Team USA in an international tournament. That's a lot of innings for 20-year old. He threw seven shutout innings against China, striking out eleven, but was finally shut down after he suffered an oblique injury in the second inning of a game against Cuba. He's fine and will be ready to go next spring.
Reckling's repertoire includes a fastball in the 87-91 MPH range, with a plus-plus 12-6 curve and plus changeup. As you might suspect, left-hand batters were fairly futile against that curve, batting only .165, while righties hit .271.
When dealing with Travelers stats, it's also important to look at home-road splits, as Dickey-Stephens Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the league. At home in 79 1/3 innings, Trevor's ERA was 2.16, while on the road it was an unremarkable 4.02, and he walked nearly as many as he struck out (43:34).
Although he'll eventually be a big-league starter, Reckling could find himself rushed to Anaheim as a lefty reliever, especially if Darren Oliver doesn't return. The more likely scenario is that he opens 2010 with Triple-A Salt Lake. Trevor rarely gives up homers — just four all year with the Travs — but the ultimate test will be the hitter-happy Pacific Coast League. Barring disaster, Reckling should get a taste of the major leagues sometime next year.
Post your comments on the FutureAngels.com Blog.
Prior FutureAngels.com Top 10 Prospects Reports:
ABBREVIATIONS:
AB — At-Bats
AVG — Batting Average
BB — Walks
ERA — Earned Run Average
GO/AO — Ground Outs to All Outs Ratio
IP — Innings Pitched
K — Strikeouts
K:BB Ratio — Strikeouts to Walks
AVG — Opponents' Batting Average
OBP — On-Base Percentage
OPS — OBP + SLG
RISP — Runners in Scoring Position
SLG — Slugging Percentage
TPA — Total Plate Appearances
WHIP — (Walks + Hits)/(Innings Pitched)