2010 FutureAngels.com Top 10 Prospects
November 26, 2010
This article is copyright © 2010 Stephen C. Smith DBA FutureAngels.com. It may not be reprinted elsewhere without the prior expressed written permission of the author. To obtain permission, e-mail Stephen at home@futureangels.com.
 Three Kernels pitchers combined to throw a no-hitter on April 30, 2010 against the Kane County Cougars. Left-to-right: Kyle Hurst, starter Fabio Martinez, Mike Kenney and pitching coach Brandon Emanuel. |
Well, that could have gone better.
A year ago, the Angels were 97-65, went to the American League championship series, and replenished the lower levels of the farm system with five picks before the second round — two first-rounders and three supplemental picks.
There was little reason to think the Angels would fall to 80-82, and that one reason would be the overall failure of their minor leagues to produce quality talent.
Brandon Wood is the type of young man you'd want your daughter to marry. But that's irrelevant when it comes to field performance, and his horrid AVG/OBP/SLG of .146/.174/.208 in 243 Total Plate Appearances (TPA) made him the poster child for the farm's failure to produce hitters.
Howie Kendrick was projected a couple years ago to one day contend for a batting title. In 2010, his overall numbers were .279/.313/.407 (658 TPA), but if you extract his fluky numbers against Tampa Bay (.543/.564/.800 in 39 TPA) his numbers against the rest of major league baseball were .263/.298/.384 (619 TPA).
Erick Aybar appeared on the cusp of putting it all together after posting a line of .312/.353/.423 (556 TPA) in 2009, but in 2010 fell back into some of his reckless minor league habits and finished with .253/.306/.330 (589 TPA).
Jeff Mathis, who has never replicated in the majors his success in the lower minors, not only posted a terrible .195/.219/.278 (218 TPA) at the plate but his defense degraded so badly that by one account he was the worst defensive catcher in the majors.
Scouting director Eddie Bane was let go at season's end, but for those inclined to think it was due to the failures of the aforementioned players, they were all drafted or signed by Bane's predecessor.
Kendry Morales was the one young hitter who lived up to expectations (.290/.346/.487 in 211 TPA), but he broke his left ankle on May 29 as he leapt onto home plate after hitting a game-winning grand-slam.
Who's to blame?
The Internet crowd invariably yells "Fire Hatcher!" when the offense tanks, but they never give Mickey credit when the offense does well. In 2009, the Angels were first in the American League in AVG, third in OBP, fourth in SLG, and second in runs scored. Hatcher didn't suddenly turn stupid. Nor did any other member of the Angels' coaching staff, major or minor.
My personal opinion that the blame lies with the player. If you look at the performance of the aforementioned players a year ago, for the most part they were trending in the right direction. The coaching staff didn't change, in personnel or philosophy, so it seems to me the players deserve some blame for failing to exploit the opportunity given them.
Some online fans have argued that prospects are best used as chips in trade for established players, and hindsight may suggest they're correct, but that strategy can also backfire. The Angels so far have yet to reap a significant reward from the August 29, 2009 trade that acquired pitcher Scott Kazmir from Tampa Bay for infielder Sean Rodriguez, minor league pitcher Alex Torres and minor league third baseman Matt Sweeney. The Angels paid Kazmir $8 million in 2010 for his 5.94 ERA and owe him $12 million for 2011. Rodriguez appeared in 118 games for the Rays this year. Torres was just ranked their #6 prospect by Baseball America. Sweeney looks like he'll flame out at Double-A.
During Bill Stoneman's reign as general manager, the Angels never traded a top prospect. That changed under Tony Reagins. In addition to the Kazmir deal, Reagins also traded first baseman Casey Kotchman and minor league pitcher Stephen Marek to rent Mark Teixeira for 54 games down the stretch in 2008. The Angels believed it would give them an advantage in negotiating with the pending free agent, but Teixeira gladly skipped off to join the Yankees. On July 25, Reagins traded pitcher Joe Saunders and three minor league pitchers to acquire Dan Haren from Arizona. The Angels gave up two 2009 top draft picks, first-rounder Tyler Skaggs and second-rounder Pat Corbin. Haren had a 2.87 ERA in 14 starts (94.0 IP) but the trade did nothing to address the team's hitting deficiencies.
With the earlier wave of hitting prospects largely a flop, fandom is skeptical that the next generation may fare any better, victims of a player development process that hasn't produced a legitimate power threat since Troy Glaus.
That next generation includes Hank Conger and Mark Trumbo, both of whom received their first major league promotions in 2010. But on the horizon is Mike Trout, the 19-year old who had perhaps the most spectacular first full season in Angels minor league history.
It's a player development system in transition, one that's restocked following two drafts where the Angels had many early-round picks due to free agent compensation. Often overlooked is how the Angels lost first-round draft picks due to signing free agents in 2005 through 2008, although they did receive some compensatory picks in that period.
Losing draft picks takes its toll, unless the organization aggressively pursues talent outside of North America not eligible for the draft, such as in the Latin and South American nations. That would seem to be one area where the Angels could improve. It's been estimated that about 20% to 25% of major leaguers are from Latin countries, but in recent years the Angels have produced few Latin major league regulars — Kendry Morales, Erick Aybar and Ervin Santana. (Alberto Callaspo was reacquired in a trade on July 22 with Kansas City.)
Three Latin players appear on this year's Top 10 list. Alexi Amarista was the lone Latin in 2009. Luis Jimenez was the only one in 2008. Unless you count Miami native Sean Rodriguez, no Latin appeared on the 2007 list. The Angels scout in Latin countries, and run a vibrant academy in the Dominican Republic, but haven't produced many top prospects in recent years from outside the United States. If they're going to sign premier free agents, they're going to lose top draft picks and that means being more successful in producing talent from Latin nations.
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| Ryan Brasier (left) threw a complete-game no hitter on April 29, 2010 for the Arkansas Travelers against the Tulsa Drillers. Stephen Locke (right) threw a five-inning no-hitter on July 12, 2010 for the Cedar Rapids Kernels against the Peoria Chiefs in a game called due to rain. | |
It should also be noted that, after the season, Rancho Cucamonga terminated its affiliation with the Angels and joined the Dodgers' system. The Angels then affiliated with the Inland Empire 66ers in San Bernardino, the Dodgers' former affiliate. The Epicenter has evolved into one of the more hitter-friendly parks in the California League, while Arrowhead Credit Union Park is considered to be pitcher-friendly. Expect Angels' minor leaguers in the California League to have better pitching stats and worse hitting stats in 2011. As I always preach, consider the context.
On to this year's FutureAngels.com Top 10 Prospects list.
Let's go over the basic eligibility rules. I'm often asked, why only ten? Why not 20 or 30 or more?
The answer is simple. The further down you go, the more meaningless it becomes.
Baseball America determined from a study years ago that only one of ten minor leaguers ever makes it to the big leagues for at least one game. Of those, only one of four will play five years in the majors.
Combine those two numbers, and it means that only one in forty minor leaguers will become a big-league regular. In a typical year, an organization might have 200 minor leaguers under contract. Applying the 1 in 40 rule, it means that on the average only five of them will emerge as big-league regulars. Applying the 1 in 10 rule, it means that at best 20 of them will even make it to the majors for one game.
So what's the point of a long list if only five will be big-league regulars?
The Baseball America Prospect Handbook does a Top 30 list for each organization, but their analysts admit privately that once you get past 20, arguing the difference between the rankings is meaningless. So I'd rather concentrate on giving you in-depth analysis of the ten guys I think you should watch, rather than a long list of names you can look up yourself and figure out pretty quickly they're not going to be major-league regulars.
As with Baseball America, players are eligible for my list so long as they don't have 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the majors. That's why Peter Bourjos isn't on the list. He had 181 major-league at-bats in 2010.
Let's also restate my definition of “Top 10”. The Top 10 what? The Top 10 talent? The first ten to make it to the big leagues? The ten players the Angels care about the most?
For me, it's a combination of all those factors. Baseball America tends to look at a player's “ceiling”, i.e. how much talent potential he has. I look at that but also take into consideration the parent club's needs. For example, I might give slightly less weight to a starting pitcher prospect if the parent club is deep in starters. I give that more importance than would Baseball America, because I'm considering how he fits into the Angels' plans, short-range or long-range. BA gives more weight to the player's likelihood to star in the big leagues, somewhere, sometime.
No relievers made the list this year. A number were worthy of consideration, such as Jordan Walden, Michael Kohn, Ysmael Carmona and more. But if you look at the total number of innings pitched by a team in one season (about 1,400 - 1,500), the typical reliever works no more than about 100 innings, or about 5%. Compare that to a starter who might work 10% - 15% of his team's innings, or an every-day player, and in the grand scheme of things a reliever's contribution is not as significant. They do collect outs when outs are more valuable (because fewer of them are left in a game), and that's important, but this year I didn't see a relief prospect whose upside was so high that he should knock out a regular from the Top 10.
Sure, I look at statistics, but the biggest flaw in statistically-obsessed prospect reviews is that they lack context. Triple-A Salt Lake, for example, is a very hitter-friendly park. But you can't just look at a Bees player's home-road splits, because there are other super-hitter friendly parks in the league. I'll go one step beyond and tell you how that player did in the hitter-friendly parks versus the neutral or pitcher-friendly parks.
“Stathead” analyses also overlook basic context such as whether a player had an injury or was trying to change his mechanics or learn a new pitch. I go watch these players myself and talk to their coaches, so I can add some insight you might not get elsewhere. I also post videos of these players, so you can watch them and decide for yourself.
Just because someone shows up on this list, it doesn't mean he's a sure-fire future major league star. It's just a snapshot of the organization at one point in time.
If you're a player or a loved one, don't take it personally if you're not on the list. In a typical season, the Angels will have around 200 minor leaguers under contract. That means 190 players don't get mentioned.
With all those qualifiers, let's tick off 190 ballplayers and their families . . .
 Jeremy Moore |
10. Jeremy Moore OF
Bats: Left Throws: Right 6'1" 190 lbs. DOB: 6/29/1987
Arkansas (Double-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .303/.358/.463 (508 TPA)
Click Here to watch a video clip
"High risk, high reward" was the hallmark of the Angels' draft philosophy in the last decade. Jeremy Moore, selected in the sixth round of the June 2005 draft, is finally moving from the "high risk" category to "high reward."
Moore was a four-sport star athlete (football, basketball, track, baseball) at North Caddo High School in Vivian, Louisiana. He was that "raw, toolsy" athlete scouts savor. Speed was considered his greatest asset. But could he learn to hit well enough to put him on the track to the big leagues?
Having completed his sixth year of professional baseball, the answer is yes, as the Angels on November 20 added Moore to the major league 40-man roster.
Moore is considered to be perhaps the fastest runner in the system, faster than even Peter Bourjos. Hamstring issues and inexperience have kept him from stealing more bases than his potential the last two years. He stole 17 of 30 in 2009 with High-A Rancho Cucamonga, and 24 of 34 in 2010 with Double-A Arkansas.
But could he hit? Jeremy showed signs of power in the past, hitting 17 homers in 96 games with Low-A Cedar Rapids in 2008 and 11 homers in 124 games with High-A Rancho Cucamonga in 2009. But he also struck out a lot, at a rate of once every 3.2 at-bats in 2009.
The strikeouts continued in 2010, but the rate improved. Overall his rate was once every 3.7 at-bats, but in the second half it improved to 4.4.
After his batting average fell to .196 on May 13 after an 0-6 performance, something clicked and Moore took off. His AVG reached .270 by the end of the first half, and he hit .333/.382/.530 in the second half. He was sent by the Angels to the Arizona Fall League, where he finished .343/.395/.543 (81 TPA), stole 8 of 9 bases, and struck out at a rate of once every 5.0 at-bats. The AFL is notoriously hitter-friendly, so those numbers need to be treated with some skepticism, but the improved strikeout ratio is a good sign.
North Little Rock's Dickey-Stephens Park is the most pitcher-friendly park in the Texas League, so when analyzing Arkansas Travelers players it's always important to look at home/road splits. Here are Jeremy's for all of 2010:
HOME (AVG/OBP/SLG): .316/.378/.400
ROAD (AVG/OBP/SLG): .290/.339/.524
It's fairly typical to see a higher slugging percentage on the road.
In the outfield, he played a lot of both left field and center field, with some exposure to right. His arm is only average, so he's better suited to LF and CF, but he runs his routes well and has good range. If not for Peter Bourjos and Mike Trout, Jeremy would probably project as an Angels' future center fielder candidate.
The organizational belief is that Moore improved because he finally had the confidence in himself to execute all he's learned over the last six seasons. He matured as a teammate, passing on what he's learned to other players.
Moore is still a work in progress. He'll always strike out a lot and needs to take more walks to exploit his speed; he walked only once every 13 plate appearances in 2010. If he can continue to improve his contact rate and his on-base percentage, Moore might be in the big-league picture when Torii Hunter's contract expires after the 2012 season — but Randal Grichuk and Mike Trout might have something to say about that.
 Trevor Reckling |
9. Trevor Reckling LHP
Bats: Left Throws: Left 6'2" 205 lbs. DOB: 5/22/1989
Salt Lake (Triple-A): 4-7 8.53 ERA, 46:50 K:BB,
AVG/OBP/SLG: .339/.444/.534, 2.14 WHIP (69.2 IP)
Arkansas (Double-A): 3-6 4.56 ERA, 62:35 K:BB,
AVG/OBP/SLG: .254/.340/.364, 1.38 WHIP (79.0 IP)
Click Here to watch a video clip
A year ago I wrote, "Barring disaster, Reckling should get a taste of the major leagues sometime next year."
Well, 2010 was a disaster for Trevor Reckling. Instead of a major league taste, he got a second helping of Double-A.
Trevor started the season with Triple-A Salt Lake, a month short of his 21st birthday. One of the youngest pitchers in the Pacific Coast League, it was not unexpected that he'd struggle, but his experience was a total derailment. By mid-season, he was back with Double-A Arkansas, where the results against less experienced hitters were somewhat better but he still failed to show consistency.
Most young pitchers can throw a four-seam fastball but struggle with their secondary pitches. Reckling had the opposite experience. His jerky delivery costs him control of his fastball, so he tends to prefer throwing his off-speed stuff. He could get away with that at lower levels where hitters are more inexperienced and impatient, but hitters in Double-A and Triple-A are smart enough to wait him out. When they see he can't establish his fastball for strikes, they'll wait for one of his other pitches and drill it, or for a fastball that lacks movement.
We saw a warning sign in 2009, when he averaged about five walks per inning in Double-A. Trevor was only 20, so it was reasonable to assume he was a very young pitcher who would work it out with experience. Challenged with Triple-A, he didn't have the opportunity to develop enough confidence in his fastball, meaning he threw it less often — and when he did, it was often up in the strike zone, a fatal error in the high-octane PCL.
Reckling lost a little velocity off his four-seam fastball, down from about 90 MPH in 2009 to about 88 MPH in 2010. Reckling once had a plus curve ball, but lost the feel for it after trying to develop a slider. ("Plus" means major league quality.) He also has a plus changeup, but with his other stuff ineffective hitters would either look for it for simply not swing at it if it wasn't a strike.
This may sound like a big mess, but Nick Adenhart suffered similar growing pains when he pitched in Triple-A at age 21. He came to spring training the next year and won a job in the starting rotation — only to have Fate deny him a career and his life.
The good news is that Reckling was healthy, and despite his woes maintained a strong work ethic, so 2011 can be viewed as a reboot. He would be best served by a return to Arkansas to start 2011, where he can iron out his mechanical problems and learn how to control the ball/strike count. The key will be throwing Strike One with his fastball. It would be nice if he could resurrect his curve, but let's get the basics out of the way first.
Having traded Will Smith to Kansas City in the Alberto Callaspo deal, and Joe Saunders, Tyler Skaggs and Pat Corbin to Arizona in the Dan Haren deal, the Angels are now very shallow in left-handed starting pitcher prospects. For better or for worse, Reckling is #1 on the depth chart in that category.
 Alexi Amarista |
8. Alexi Amarista 2B
Bats: Left Throws: Right 5'8" 150 lbs. DOB: 4/6/1989
Rancho Cucamonga (High-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .303/.349/.448 (323 TPA)
Arkansas (Double-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .288/.332/.325 (213 TPA)
Salt Lake (Triple-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .400/.412/.585 (70 TPA)
Click Here to watch a video clip
Charitably listed at 5'8" in official records (he's more like 5'5"), Alexi Amarista played at three levels in 2010, ending the year with a brief stint at Triple-A Salt Lake. He's now on the radar as a potential future Angels second baseman, but still needs polishing.
Amarista loves to hit. He's fearless and aggressive at the plate. He consistently squares up the ball with his bat, meaning that regardless of the pitch location he can be level with his swing and strike the ball squarely. Alexi can drive pitches outside his diminutive strike zone, but that also means he'll swing at some bad pitches. He can get himself out in early hitter counts due to his aggressiveness.
Because of his small stature, Amarista should emphasize drawing more walks, but hasn't shown that patience yet. In his 70 Triple-A plate appearances, for example, he drew only one walk. Overall in 2010, in 606 plate appearances he drew only 33 walks, or once every 18.3 trips to the plate. But he also excelled at contact, with only 61 strikeouts, or one every 9.9 plate appearances. He won't hit for power in the majors, so he really needs to exploit his size to reach base more often by the walk.
Alexi can be as fun to watch play as Peter Bourjos, although he lacks Bourjos' plus-plus speed. Amarista stole 25 of 38 bases in 2010; he needs to learn how to steal bases to become a legitimate major-league base-stealer.
Although the Angels experimented with some outfield time for him in his Rookie-A 2008 season, since then he's been strictly a second baseman. He's outstanding at that position, committing only one error in 72 games with Rancho Cucamonga and six in 48 games with Double-A Arkansas. He lacks the arm strength to be an every-day major league shortstop.
After Howie Kendrick's disappointing year, Amarista and Jean Segura may begin to emerge in 2011 as legitimate challengers for the second base job in 2012. Amarista is about a year older than Segura, and is pretty much limited to 2B while Segura successfully auditioned in fall instructional league at shortstop. Don't be surprised if by the end of 2011 the Angels have paired up these two in Salt Lake as a test run of a possible Angels' middle infield of the future.
 Fabio Martinez |
7. Fabio Martinez RHP
Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'3" 190 lbs. DOB: 10/29/1989
Cedar Rapids (Low-A): 7-3 3.92 ERA, 141:76 K:BB,
AVG/OBP/SLG: .216/.352/.319, 1.51 WHIP (103.1 IP)
Click Here to watch a video clip
It's not hard to look at Fabio Martinez and be reminded of a young Ervin Santana — electric fastball, nasty slider, a tendency to overthrow. At Fabio's age, Santana was one level higher (Rancho Cucamonga), had eliminated his most glaring mechanical flaws, and begun to mature into a pitcher instead of a thrower. Martinez has yet to do that, and therefore remains more potential than top-of-the-rotation prospect.
Like many young Dominican pitchers, Fabio wants to throw hard. The result is his mechanics are very inconsistent. He struggles with repeating his rhythm and finding a consistent release point. His upper body will fly towards first base, and his arm tends to get high. He does create a downhill delivery angle, but the other flaws result in an unacceptably high rate of walks. If he doesn't correct these problems, hitters at more advanced levels will simply wait him out, either taking the walk or waiting for a pitch in their zone they can drive.
Fabio's velocity on his four-seam fastball ranges anywhere from 89 to 97 MPH, but he's most consistent at 93-94. He also has a two-seamer but rarely uses it, preferring his plus slider. He has a changeup, but it's a work in progress. His 141 strikeouts were the second-highest in the Angels' system behind Garrett Richards.
Martinez was shut down after a July 30 start due to shoulder stiffness, probably due to his bad mechanics, and missed the Kernels' post-season run. He spent the rest of the season on rehab assignment at the Angels' minor league complex in Tempe. He pitched again in fall instructional league; I was there for his October 15 start, and he was back to his old bad habits. (Click here to watch.)
A poor spring could find Fabio back in Cedar Rapids to start 2011, although Inland Empire would seem a more likely destination. If he matures and cleans up his mechanics, he'll be on the fast-track to a major-league career. But that's a big "if" for now.
 Mark Trumbo |
6. Mark Trumbo 1B-OF
Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'4" 220 lbs. DOB: 1/16/1986
Salt Lake (Triple-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .301/.368/.577 (595 TPA)
Los Angeles (A.L.) AVG/OBP/SLG: .067/.125/.067 (16 TPA)
Click Here to watch a video clip
A year ago, I wrote that Mark Trumbo should open 2010 with Triple-A Salt Lake. "The Pacific Coast League is a hitter-friendly league, so his offense numbers should pick up in 2010, and an Anaheim audition before season's end is within reason."
Mission accomplished.
Trumbo was named the Angels' minor league player of the year, hitting 36 homers for the Bees. He received a post-season callup to Anaheim, where he mostly watched although he did get to the plate 16 times and collected his first major-league hit (October 3, a single off Mark Lowe).
Although his overall 2010 numbers impress, a proper analysis of Bees hitters requires an unusual split of their stats. Salt Lake, Colorado Springs, Albuquerque, Reno and Las Vegas are all super-hitter friendly ballparks. I separate a hitter's numbers in those five parks from the rest to get a more accurate depiction of their performance. Some difference is to be expected, but it's the amount of difference that tells us how severe those five parks distorted a player's overall stats.
Mark's custom splits in 2010 were:
OVERALL AVG/OBP/SLG: .301/.368/.577 (595 TPA)
HITTER-FRIENDLY AVG/OBP/SLG: .334/.403/.614 (395 TPA)
NEUTRAL/PITCHER-FRIENDLY AVG/OBP/SLG: .236/.300/.505 (200 TPA)
The good news is that Trumbo's power numbers hold up fairly well in the neutral/pitcher-friendly parks, but the splits show he still has room for improvement.
Spray charts for minor league hitters are not publicly available, but we can get an idea of how Trumbo uses the whole field by looking at the play-by-play reports on the private MLB Advanced Media web site used by minor league teams to report statistics. Based on those reports, here's where Mark hit his homers:
LEFT FIELD: 15
LEFT-CENTER: 8
CENTER FIELD: 2
RIGHT-CENTER: 1
RIGHT FIELD: 10
Many of the right-field homers were in Salt Lake down that friendly 315' foul line. In any case, these numbers show that Trumbo continues to use the whole field, a plus quality for power-hitters, many of whom tend to be pull-conscious.
Trumbo showed progress as a more selective hitter as the year progressed. Early in the season, he would swing at two-strike pitches no matter their location, but learned to be more patient. As he earned a reputation as a power hitter, pitchers started throwing him more off-speed pitches in hitting counts. He's a smart hitter who knows he needs to make adjustments. Mark's strikeout rate increased from once every 5.3 at-bats in 2009 to 4.2 in 2010, but his walk rate improved from once every 15.7 plate appearances in 2009 to 10.2 in 2010.
The Angels didn't play Trumbo in right field as much as I expected. A conversion from first base was briefly tested in late 2009, but in 2010 he appeared in only 23 games in the outfield, mostly in right. He needs more experience with his routes, but improved his footwork when throwing.
A healthy Kendry Morales blocks Trumbo at first base in Anaheim, so it's likely he'll return to Salt Lake to start 2011. More experience in the corner outfield positions will improve his chances for a big-league job, but should the Angels sign a free agent such as Carl Crawford there won't be many opportunities for Trumbo with the parent club. For now, he'll return to Triple-A to work on polishing his craft.
 Randal Grichuk |
5. Randal Grichuk OF
Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'1" 195 lbs. DOB: 8/13/1991
Cedar Rapids (Low-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .292/.327/.530 (214 TPA)
Tempe (Rookie-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .327/.365/.714 (52 TPA)
Click Here to watch a video clip
One Angels minor league instructor called Randal Grichuk his choice for the organization's most improved player in 2010. You might not know it looking at his overall numbers, but looking at his progress over the course of the season you'll understand why.
Grichuk had a horrid April, batting just .203 with only one homer. May began as a different story, as in his next eight games batted .300 with three homers. That momentum ended on May 9 when he injured his left thumb diving for a fly ball at Wisconsin. Randal went to the Angels' minor league complex for rehab, played in 12 games in late July/early August, then returned to the Kernels' lineup on August 7. Over the next month, he hit .366/.385/.645, bashing 17 extra-base hits including three homers. Fate intervened again when he ran into the wall chasing a fly ball at Quad Cities on August 30 and broke a bone in his right thumb, ending his season.
Despite the injuries, we give a thumbs-up to Randal's year. (Pun very much intended.)
Grichuk was very open to learning about his swing. His strikeout rate improved from once every 3.69 at-bats in 2009 with Rookie-A Tempe to 4.04 overall with Cedar Rapids in 2010, and 4.65 after he returned from the first injury. He still takes very few walks — only nine all year with the Kernels — which shows how raw he still is. Grichuk turned 19 on August 13, one of the youngest hitters in the league, so he still has a lot more learning to do. He has strength to all fields, but like most young power hitters wants to pull the ball. He missed a lot of breaking balls early in the year, but learned to stop chasing sliders out of the zone, and by season's end was driving breaking balls for extra-base hits.
When first drafted, analysts rated Grichuk below average defensively and thought he'd be a left fielder at best, but those early projections turned out to be wrong. His arm right now is better than Mike Trout's. His throws are accurate and have good carry. He needs more experience to get better reads on the ball and run better routes, but as of now it appears that Grichuk might be capable of playing a major-league average right field. Should Peter Bourjos remain in center field, that could force Mike Trout over to left field.
Randal missed so much time in 2010 that it's possible the Angels might elect to return him to Cedar Rapids to open 2011, but a strong spring could find him with Inland Empire. Arrowhead Credit Union Park is a pitcher-friendly stadium, so when he arrives his offense numbers might disappoint for a while, but let's remember his age and relative lack of experience. Power is always the last skill to arrive for a hitter, but if he can continue to improve his pitch selection at the plate he might emerge within a year or two as the top power prospect in the system.
 Garrett Richards |
4. Garrett Richards RHP
Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'3" 210 lbs. DOB: 5/27/1988
Cedar Rapids (Low-A): 8-4 3.41 ERA, 108:34 K:BB,
AVG/OBP/SLG: .229/.293/.346, 1.16 WHIP (108.1 IP)
Rancho Cucamonga (High-A): 4-1 3.89 ERA, 41:9 K:BB,
AVG/OBP/SLG: .281/.327/.422, 1.36 WHIP (34.2 IP)
Click Here to watch a video clip
Some observers questioned the Angels selecting Garrett Richards with a supplemental first round pick (#42 overall) in the June 2009 draft, after he posted a 6.23 ERA in his college career with the Oklahoma Sooners. After two strong professional seasons, Richards has silenced those critics, projecting as a legitimate major-league pitching prospect.
Richards led the Angels minor leagues with 149 strikeouts in 143 innings, and his combined 3.52 ERA was second among starters only to Tyler Chatwood's 2.84. He spent the first four months with Low-A Cedar Rapids, then was promoted to High-A Rancho Cucamonga in late July. The Quakes went to the playoffs, where Richards made two starts. The first start was shaky (four walks and five hits in five innings), but the second start in the championship series went much better (eight strikeouts, one walk, two hits in seven innings).
Although he's a power pitcher, Garrett gets a lot of ground outs. His ground-outs-to-all-other-outs (GO/AO) ratio with Cedar Rapids was 1.99, and with Rancho Cucamonga was 1.95. As a random comparison, contrast that with Jered Weaver's 2010 major league GO/AO which was 0.70. Joel Piniero, whose reputation is as a ground-ball pitcher, had a 1.91 GO/AO. The main reason Richards gets those grounders is he throws a two-seam fastball with late life that young hitters at lower levels will chase. His four-seam fastball is his main pitch; his velocity can range from 90 to 98 MPH, although he's usually around 94-95. He also has a slider, changeup, and curve ball. The curve has been described as a plus pitch but he seems reluctant to use it, maybe four or five pitches in a start.
Richards' main problem is the direction of his delivery. He tends to throw across his body a lot, but not as much as Weaver. He'll let his upper body drift down the slope of the pitcher's mound, causing his elbow to drop. When that happens, his four-seam fastball flattens out and he gets hit. Garrett needs to keep his head and upper body back, which will keep his hand over the ball. If you watch the above video clip of Richards' bullpen session in early May 2010 with Kernels pitching coach Brandon Emanuel, you'll see them working on this problem.
It's likely that Garrett will start 2011 with Double-A Arkansas, where he'll find pitcher-friendly Dickey-Stephens Park to his liking. The key will be to look at his Texas League road numbers to get a more accurate gauge of his progress. If he can fix his mechanical issues, he may see Salt Lake by season's end and maybe even Anaheim.
 Jean Segura |
3. Jean Segura 2B
Bats: Right Throws: Right 5'11" 155 lbs. DOB: 3/17/1990
Cedar Rapids (Low-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .313/.365/.464 (581 TPA)
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Cross a young Erick Aybar with a young Alberto Callaspo, and you get Jean Segura.
Callaspo had a slightly stockier build than Aybar and played second base. Aybar was more athletic and graceful at shortstop, but also reckless and emotional. Callaspo was going to hit for a higher average, while Aybar was going to steal more bases. Callaspo was steady and reliable at second base, while Aybar had a gun for an arm at shortstop.
Neither turned out to be quite the player projected six or seven years ago, but Jean Segura today reflects a fusion of their attributes as prospects.
2010 was Segura's first full season after missing parts of 2008 and 2009 due to injury. He missed most of 2008 due to a broken ankle, and in 2009 broke a finger sliding into second base during a game at Orem that prematurely ended that season. One would reasonably expect him to run out of gas as a 20-year old in his first full season, but as the Kernels went into the playoffs Segura was at his best.
Segura batted third in the lineup for much of the first half. Once Mike Trout was promoted to Rancho Cucamonga in mid-July, Segura moved into the leadoff slot and thrived. Batting first in the lineup, Segura's numbers for 2010 were .353/.402/.563 (149 TPA) and was 22 for 26 in stolen bases. For the year, he was 50 for 60 in swiping bags. The leg he broke in 2008 bothered him a bit towards the end but didn't stop him from running amok on the basepaths.
Jean appears a bit bottom-heavy, but he's rock solid and certainly is faster than you might think. He doesn't have Mike Trout's first-step explosiveness, but he's better once he's under way. He may be the best first-to-third runner in the organization.
Like many young Dominican hitters, Segura makes contact but draws relatively few walks. He struck out once every 7.1 at-bats but walked only once every 12.9 trips to the plate. He needs more strike zone discipline and a better idea of what he's going to do when he goes to bat. Jean expands his strike zone with runners in scoring position and therefore tends to chase bad pitches.
Arguably the best defensive second baseman in the Midwest League, Segura was tops in total chances (619) and assists (396), and he participated in turning 77 double plays. His arm strength is close to Aybar's. During fall instructional league, the Angels tested him at shortstop, and he took to the position quickly.
Inland Empire is the most likely destination for Segura come April, although the temptation might be to leapfrog him to Double-A Arkansas as the Angels did with Callaspo in 2004. If Alexi Amarista shows he can hit Triple-A pitching, the Angels may move over Segura to shortstop and groom him as a future middle-infield tandem with Amarista. Segura might see Salt Lake by the end of 2011, if he can learn more plate discipline.
 Hank Conger |
2. Hank Conger C
Bats: Both Throws: Right 6'1" 220 lbs. DOB: 1/29/1988
Salt Lake (Triple-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .300/.385/.463 (452 TPA)
Los Angeles (A.L.) AVG/OBP/SLG: .172/.294/.276 (34 TPA)
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If nothing else, 2010 will be remembered as the year that Hank Conger homered in the Futures Game in front of the home crowd at Anaheim and was named its Most Valuable Player. Hank and the Conger family most likely will remember it as the year he made his major league debut.
As discussed with Mark Trumbo above, Salt Lake offense numbers need to be viewed in context. Conger is one of those rare Bees hitters whose numbers were actually better in the neutral/pitcher-friendly parks:
OVERALL AVG/OBP/SLG: .300/.385/.463 (452 TPA)
HITTER-FRIENDLY AVG/OBP/SLG: .290/.381/.448 (305 TPA)
NEUTRAL/PITCHER-FRIENDLY AVG/OBP/SLG: .320/.393/.492 (147 TPA)
Another good sign was Hank's excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio, which was nearly one-to-one (58:55). He struck out once every 6.7 at-bats, an excellent ratio for a projected power hitter. A full season of catching tends to wear down a player, but Conger hit .365 in 33 games over August/September with five homers before moving up to Anaheim in a late-season call-up.
One concern was his poor performance batting against southpaws (.193/.331/.254). This was a significant reversal of 2009, when he was better against righties. If the trend continues in the big leagues, expect opposing managers to flip him in late innings by bringing in a left-handed reliever.
Having missed so much time in earlier years due to injury, 2010 was a major test of his durability, and he passed with flying colors. Conger caught 81 games for the Bees, sometimes four or five games in a row. That said, his mechanics are still a work in progress. Although his arm strength is strong, his mechanics need improvement and led to throwing errors. His 13 errors were the most of any PCL catcher. He was 34 for 119 (28.6%) in throwing out base-runners; no PCL catcher had more runners try to steal on him. His blocking can be a bit unorthodox at times, but he was charged with no passed balls and had excellent lateral movement.
Conger's game-calling improved during the year. Early in the season, he'd get away from the game plan when overwhelmed, but grew more confident over the year, took charge and worked well with pitchers. The feedback was positive from the major-league pitchers who threw to Conger during his late-season call-up.
Hank has Jeff Mathis, Mike Napoli and Bobby Wilson ahead of him, but it's expected that the Angels may move at least one of them this winter. Conger most likely will get more Triple-A seasoning in 2011 as he needs more catching experience and to clean up his throwing mechanics. Absent a setback, it's reasonable to assume Hank will be the Angels' starting catcher by the end of 2011.
 Mike Trout |
1. Mike Trout OF
Bats: Right Throws: Right 6'1" 217 lbs. DOB: 8/7/1991
Cedar Rapids (Low-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .362/.454/.526 (368 TPA)
Rancho Cucamonga (High-A) AVG/OBP/SLG: .306/.388/.434 (232 TPA)
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Darin Erstad was the last Angel to have as spectacular a full-season debut as Mike Trout did in 2010. Erstad reached the majors after 143 minor-league games, but he was drafted after his junior year in college at age 21. Trout turn 19 last August and had a year for the ages, appearing in the Futures Game and playing for Team USA when he wasn't tearing up the Midwest and California Leagues.
But let's not forget that Casey Kotchman and Brandon Wood once had such high expectations, and neither turned their minor-league promise into major-league success. Trout has yet to taste failure, and that is always the big test for a superstar prospect. Major league pitchers will find a hitter's weakness fairly quickly and, if the hitter can't adjust, his career is over.
That said, Trout has emerged as one of the top prospects in the game. You might see him bunt for a hit, steal a base, take a walk or two, then explode for a triple or homer. Mike has such well-rounded potential that he could become a disruptive force on the bases with good power like Carl Crawford, or become a pure power hitter such as Tim Salmon. Trout always hit #1 in the lineup with Cedar Rapids and Rancho Cucamonga, so if the Angels want him to become a run-producer they'll have to drop him in the lineup and add extension to his compact swing so he'll drive the ball more. Some in the system believe he may continue to fill out, reducing his speed to the point where he's better off in the long run being developed as a power hitter anyway, alhough he'll still have plus speed and baserunning skills.
Trout isn't the fastest runner in the system, but he's only one step behind them and has explosive acceleration. His basepath running skills are excellent, with little wasted energy. He was successful stealing bases 83% of the time (45 for 54) in the Midwest League, but in the Cal League that dropped to 65% (11 for 17). Mike struggled against left-handed pitchers in the Cal, posting an AVG/OBP/SLG of .237/.313/.356. Trout's AVG against lefties was less (.324 versus .373) in the Midwest League too.
There's some sentiment within the organization that Trout may wind up in a corner outfield position. His arm isn't as strong as Peter Bourjos or even Cedar Rapids teammate Randal Grichuk. He could improve with better throwing mechanics. He also needs to improve running routes towards the ball, which is not uncommon among outfielders in the lower minors. If Bourjos can hit well enough to justify his plus-plus defense in center field, Trout will do fine in right field, or could move to left should Grichuk play right, with Mark Trumbo and Jeremy Moore also in the mix. If the Angels sign a free-agent outfielder during the off-season such as Crawford, that will of course change future permutations.
Trout will likely start 2011 with Double-A Arkansas. Dickey-Stephens Park is the most pitcher-friendly park in the Texas League, so don't be surprised if his early numbers disappoint. Pay more attention to his road numbers as a valid indicator of his progress. With any success, Mike should have at least a taste of Triple-A by season's end.
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ABBREVIATIONS:
AB — At-Bats
AVG — Batting Average
BB — Walks
ERA — Earned Run Average
GO/AO — Ground Outs to All Outs Ratio
IP — Innings Pitched
K — Strikeouts
K:BB Ratio — Strikeouts to Walks
AVG — Opponents' Batting Average
OBP — On-Base Percentage
OPS — OBP + SLG
RISP — Runners in Scoring Position
SLG — Slugging Percentage
TPA — Total Plate Appearances
WHIP — (Walks + Hits)/(Innings Pitched)